Overview of Turkey's Strategy in Post-Assad Syria
In the wake of the recent political upheaval in Syria following the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey has signaled its intent to play a pivotal role in the country's future. On December 12, Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin visited Damascus, marking a significant moment in Turkish-Syrian relations. His visit, accompanied by Ahmad al-Sharaa, the new head of the Syrian administration, underscores Turkey's commitment to remaining engaged during this transitional phase. This engagement is crucial given Syria's geostrategic importance to Turkey, serving as a gateway to Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula, and its shared 900-kilometer border, which has been a source of security concerns due to the presence of the PKK and other terrorist organizations.
Turkey's strategy appears to focus on maintaining Syria's territorial integrity and preventing any fragmentation that could arise from sectarian and ethnic tensions. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emphasized the necessity of a united Syria, reflecting on historical attempts to exploit these divisions. The Turkish government aims to foster a participatory administration in Syria that respects the diverse identities of its population, thereby promoting a tolerant society.
Counter-Terrorism and Reconstruction Efforts
A significant aspect of Turkey's strategy involves countering terrorism. Erdogan has made it clear that Turkey will not tolerate the presence of terrorist organizations, particularly the PKK and its affiliates, along its borders. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has outlined a roadmap for addressing these threats, which includes the expulsion of PKK leadership from Syria and the disarmament of remaining fighters. The Syrian National Army has already made strides in this regard, pushing the PKK-affiliated groups east of the Euphrates River.
In addition to security concerns, Turkey is also focused on the reconstruction of Syria, which is estimated to cost around $300 billion. Erdogan has pledged Turkey's support for Syria's recovery, recognizing that the reconstruction process will require international cooperation and the lifting of sanctions against the Assad regime. Turkish diplomacy is actively working to encourage the new Syrian administration to adopt policies that reassure the international community, facilitating the return of displaced persons and refugees to their homes. This return is seen as vital to reversing the demographic changes that have occurred in Syria during the conflict.
In conclusion, Turkey's approach to Syria is multifaceted, addressing both immediate security concerns and long-term reconstruction goals. As the situation evolves, Turkey's role in shaping Syria's future will be closely watched, particularly in light of its historical ties and strategic interests in the region.
