Turkey's Strategic Gains Following Syrian Opposition Victory
With the recent fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Turkey finds itself in a pivotal position, poised to reap significant benefits from the victory of the Syrian opposition. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that the era of instability in Syria, which lasted over 14 years, has ended. He stated Turkey's intention to collaborate with the new administration to ensure a successful transitional phase. However, Fidan also cautioned against potential threats from terrorist organizations that may seek to exploit this transitional period.
Turkey has been a steadfast supporter of the Syrian opposition for over a decade, focusing on two critical issues: managing the Syrian refugee crisis and countering the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates. According to researcher Kutluhan Kurcu, Turkey's policies have led to a gradual return of refugees and a significant reduction in the presence of armed organizations in Syria. The decline of Iranian influence in the region presents Turkey with an opportunity to enhance its role in shaping a new Syrian regime, potentially expanding its influence like never before.
Military Presence and Future Challenges
As Turkey navigates this new phase, it remains vigilant against the PKK's presence in northern Syria. Security analyst Murad Aslan noted that Turkey views the PKK's control over territory as a non-negotiable issue, which could lead to military intervention if necessary. Despite the complexities of U.S. involvement in the region, Aslan asserted that Turkey prioritizes its national security and is prepared to take decisive action to protect its interests.
The changing dynamics in Syria have further solidified Turkey's role as a crucial player in the region. With traditional allies of the Assad regime, such as Russia and Iran, facing their own challenges, Turkey's influence is expected to grow. Researcher Mustafa Yateem highlighted that the weakening of the Assad regime has made Turkey an indispensable partner in future stability efforts. As both Russia and Iran adapt to the new reality, they may seek to strengthen cooperation with Turkey, potentially revitalizing political platforms like the Astana Process to achieve a new balance in the region.
