Turkey's involvement in northern Syria is a strategic maneuver to reshape regional power dynamics and counter Kurdish influence.
The internal political landscape in Turkey shows a rare consensus on the Syrian issue, despite the opposition's criticism of Assad.
The evolving situation in Syria presents both opportunities and challenges for Turkey, particularly in its relations with Iran and Russia.
Turkey may increase its military presence in northern Syria to secure its interests and counter Kurdish forces.
Future negotiations regarding Syria could see Turkey leveraging its support for the opposition to gain concessions from international powers.
The ongoing conflict may lead to further humanitarian crises, prompting international calls for intervention.
Turkey's Strategic Role in Northern Syria's Conflict
As the conflict in Syria evolves, Turkey's influence in the region is becoming increasingly significant. Following the collapse of Syrian army forces, various Syrian armed factions, supported by Turkey, have gained control over several villages and cities, particularly in Aleppo and Hama. This shift raises questions about Ankara's strategic intentions and its role in shaping the future of Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been actively engaging in international discussions, emphasizing the need for a political settlement between the Syrian government and opposition factions. He recently met with Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi to address regional cooperation amidst existing differences.
Internal and External Pressures on Turkey
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reiterated Turkey's commitment to safeguarding its national security, closely monitoring military escalations in northern Syria. Despite political differences within Turkey, the opposition largely aligns with the government's stance on Syria. Notably, Ahmet Davutoglu, leader of the opposition Future Party, criticized Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's conditions for normalization with Turkey, suggesting that a more conciliatory approach could have preserved Assad's influence. Meanwhile, the Felicity Party has expressed opposition to military actions against the Syrian regime, warning of potential humanitarian crises.
Implications for Regional Dynamics
Analysts suggest that Turkey's support for the Syrian opposition is a calculated move to counter the influence of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and to leverage its position in future international negotiations. The recent territorial gains by the opposition provide Turkey with a stronger bargaining position, particularly as it navigates complex relationships with Russia and Iran. Political analyst Taha Odeh Oglu notes that Turkey's current standing is bolstered by agreements with Moscow and Washington, allowing it to pursue its interests more effectively. However, the ongoing tensions between Turkey and Iran complicate the path to a peaceful resolution, as Tehran continues to support the Assad regime, labeling opposition forces as terrorists.
