Rising Tensions in Syria: The Role of Regional Powers
As the armed Syrian opposition expands its influence in strategic locations such as Homs and Daraa, the geopolitical landscape in the region is shifting. A recent tripartite meeting in Baghdad involving the foreign ministers of Iraq, Syria, and Iran aimed to address the ongoing crisis in Syria. Military and strategic expert Colonel Hatem Karim Al-Falahi highlighted that the Syrian leadership is facing threats from multiple fronts, particularly with the opposition's control over Homs, which could encircle the coastal region and threaten the capital, Damascus.
Colonel Al-Falahi noted that the Syrian army's challenges are exacerbated by a decline in Russian support, evidenced by the withdrawal of the Russian fleet from the Mediterranean and calls for Russian citizens to leave Syria. The bombing of the Rastan Bridge by Syrian and Russian forces was intended to hinder opposition movements, but Colonel Al-Falahi argued that such measures are ineffective against the opposition's multi-directional strategies.
Dr. Shafiq Shuqair, a researcher at the Al Jazeera Center for Studies, emphasized Homs' strategic position as a buffer between Iraq and Lebanon, raising concerns about potential clashes between opposition forces and Iranian-backed militias. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent comments suggested a cautious approach to the situation, indicating that Turkey would not interfere with the opposition's movements towards Damascus.
Russia's Diminishing Role and the Future of Assad
Amidst these developments, reports indicate that Russia is reconsidering its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. An anonymous source close to the Kremlin stated that Russia has no plans to rescue Assad as the opposition gains ground. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the situation in Syria as complex, and analysts suggest that Russia is reluctant to invest in a leader perceived to have lost legitimacy.
Colonel Al-Falahi remarked that the current Russian stance differs significantly from its intervention in 2015, as it grapples with its own military challenges in Ukraine and Europe. He noted that both Russia and Turkey have attempted to foster relations with Assad, but Iranian and Assad's stubbornness have hindered these efforts.
Turkey's strategic interests in Syria appear to align with the opposition's advances, as Erdogan expressed hope that the opposition would continue its push towards Damascus without interference. Meanwhile, Iran is reportedly seeking diplomatic avenues to support Assad amidst the escalating crisis.
In light of these developments, Israel remains vigilant, reportedly targeting chemical weapons stores in Syria to prevent them from falling into the hands of opposition forces. Israel's strategic goal is to maintain Syria as a buffer state against Iranian influence while being wary of the potential rise of Islamic factions in the region.
