The Syrian army's inability to counterattack effectively highlights the shifting dynamics of the conflict, influenced by both military and geopolitical factors.
The opposition's recent territorial gains indicate a potential resurgence in their capabilities, which could alter the balance of power in the region.
The reduced involvement of Russian forces and the absence of key militias suggest a significant decline in support for the Syrian regime, impacting its operational effectiveness.
If the opposition continues to gain ground, it may lead to a re-evaluation of alliances and strategies among regional powers involved in the Syrian conflict.
The potential fall of Hama could trigger further military offensives by the opposition, threatening the stability of key cities like Homs and Damascus.
Increased diplomatic engagement among Turkey, Iran, and Russia may result in new negotiations aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict, influenced by the changing military landscape.
Military expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna has stated that the Syrian army is struggling to mount a counterattack to reclaim lost territories, as the armed opposition continues to solidify its military gains. Recently, the Syrian opposition announced control over 12 villages and towns in the Hama countryside, including Halfaya, Soran, and Taybat al-Imam, as part of their 'Deterrence of Aggression' operation. Reports indicate that the opposition has targeted Hama Military Airport with drones, further escalating the conflict.
Hanna described the opposition's recent offensive as akin to a 'lightning war,' particularly highlighting their capture of key areas around Aleppo, including Nayrab military airport, which enhances their strategic position and protects the city from aerial assaults. He emphasized that Hama is a vital strategic point due to its location on the M5 international road, which connects northern and southern Syria.
The opposition's advances in Suran and Maardis suggest their readiness for significant battles in the Qamhana and Zain al-Abidin areas, which are strategically important due to their elevation. Hanna noted that the opposition's strategy aims to disperse Syrian army forces, which are currently relying on limited reinforcements from special forces and pro-Iranian militias.
Hanna warned that if Hama falls, it could enable the opposition to push towards Homs and the M1 international highway, potentially threatening key locations such as Latakia and Damascus. He pointed out that the Syrian army lacks the necessary capabilities for a counterattack, citing reduced Russian military support due to Moscow's focus on the Ukraine conflict.
The absence of Wagner Group forces and weakened support from Hezbollah and Iran have further diminished the Syrian regime's ability to regain control. Hanna noted that Russia is no longer able to provide the same level of air and fire support as in previous years, allowing the opposition to make significant progress without substantial international backing for the Syrian regime.
These military developments could lead to shifts in the political landscape, with ongoing diplomatic efforts among Turkey, Iran, and Russia potentially paving the way for new negotiations under the auspices of UN Security Council Resolution No. 2254.
