Daily Reports
Iran and Turkey Relations Unflinching Despite President Raisi’s Death
Despite the recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, the close relations between Iran and Turkey are unlikely to waver. Turkey's immediate response to the tragedy illustrates the depth of their connection. A Turkish 'Akinci' drone was dispatched to the crash site to assist in locating the wreckage, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his condolences on social media, praising Raisi’s efforts for regional peace.
This gesture exemplifies the multi-layered relationship between the two nations. Sanctions against Iran from Western countries have led to covert collaborations involving Turkish business and government officials. High-profile figures such as Reza Zarrab, a businessman with dual Turkish and Iranian citizenship, have revealed how Turkish politicians and bankers helped Iran circumvent U.S. and U.N. sanctions, allegedly with Erdogan's approval.
Erdogan, during his term as Prime Minister, along with his Economics Minister Ali Babacan, reportedly endorsed these actions. Caglayan, Turkey's former Economy Minister, allegedly received 50% of the substantial profits generated. Notably, Turkey's state-owned Halkbank played a critical role in this elaborate scheme by laundering money to purchase gold, which was then used to pay for Iranian oil and gas.
The relationship between the two nations extends beyond economics. Iran and Turkey share similar stances on Israel and often collaborate on key political opinions against Prime Minister Netanyahu's policies. Both countries, grappling with economic crises, have elected to fortify their partnership further. Raisi's recent visit to Turkey earlier this year emphasized this alliance, with both leaders expressing the intent to elevate their bilateral relations.
Raisi’s untimely death, however, introduces questions about potential successors and the direction of Iran’s future policies. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the ultimate authority in Iran, and the recent tragedy is unlikely to shift the balance of power significantly. The upcoming presidential election, mandated within 50 days, will be crucial in maintaining the status quo, with interim president Mohammad Mojber steering the government temporarily.
The larger issue overshadowing this development is the succession of Khamenei. Raisi was perceived as a strong candidate to succeed him, and his death opens the possibility of Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, taking over. This potential hereditary succession could pose legitimacy challenges for the regime, further scrutinized under the lens of an economically distressed and politically turbulent Iran.
Moreover, public protests and international criticism have consistently plagued the Islamic Republic, with the death of Mahsa Amini last year exemplifying societal unrest. The Republic's iron grip, particularly under Raisi, has alienated many, especially among women and the youth. The road ahead for Iran could involve significant domestic turmoil, influencing its relationships with nations like Turkey.
- Iran’s governmental structure involves regular elections, but the supreme leader, currently Khamenei, holds decisive power over major policies. The president and parliament are elected through universal suffrage, while the supreme leader commands the armed forces and oversees the Guardian Council.
- The Guardian Council comprised of clerics, with half appointed by the supreme leader, ensures all candidates align with Islamic jurisprudence. This council plays a pivotal role in shaping Iran's political landscape, as evidenced by Raisi's uncontested election in 2021.
- Successive presidents have navigated the rigid framework set by the supreme leader. Future shifts in leadership, especially post-Khamenei, will factor significantly into Iran’s domestic and international strategies.
- Western sanctions have significantly impacted Iran's economy, exacerbated by its nuclear ambitions. These sanctions, coupled with strict enforcement of Islamic law, have led to widespread discontent, visible in numerous protests and societal pushback.
