Turkey and Syria Move Towards Normalization Amid Regional Tensions
In a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy, Turkey and Syria are on the path to normalizing relations after years of estrangement. This process began with a historic meeting between the defense ministers and intelligence chiefs of both nations in Moscow in December 2022. Following this, a quadrilateral meeting in May 2023, which included Turkey, Syria, Russia, and Iran, aimed to address the complexities of the Syrian crisis. However, the normalization efforts faced setbacks due to the outbreak of Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa in October 2023. Despite this, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reignited talks, emphasizing Turkey's readiness to restore peace with Syria and collaborate with Syrian and Russian counterparts to develop a roadmap for normalization.
The normalization process is not without its challenges. Iran, which has expanded its influence in Syria during the war, is wary of losing its foothold, fearing a scenario similar to its diminished role in Bosnia post-Dayton Agreement in 1995. Iran's concerns stem from the potential shift in power dynamics in Syria, which could undermine the influence it has built over the years.
The Implications of Normalization for Turkey, Syria, and Iran
From Turkey's perspective, normalizing relations with Syria is essential for national security and regional stability. The ongoing conflict in Syria has drastically altered its political landscape, with various factions, including the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Iranian-backed groups, exerting influence. Turkey prioritizes securing its long border with Syria and views the normalization process as a means to mitigate threats posed by Kurdish entities and the geopolitical ambitions of Israel.
Conversely, the Syrian government sees normalization as a strategic necessity to address its internal crises and counterbalance Iranian influence. President Bashar al-Assad has expressed readiness for dialogue with Turkey, indicating a potential shift in the regional balance of power. The normalization process could also help Syria reintegrate into the Arab world, enhancing its economic prospects amidst ongoing crises.
As the normalization talks progress, both nations must navigate the complexities of their historical grievances and current geopolitical realities. The involvement of Russia as a mediator adds another layer of complexity, as it seeks to maintain its influence in the region. The future of Turkish-Syrian relations remains uncertain, but the potential for a significant diplomatic breakthrough looms on the horizon.
