The Astana 22 conference is seen as a critical juncture for the Syrian conflict, particularly in light of recent military escalations and the shifting political landscape following the U.S. elections.
The ongoing tensions in Idlib highlight the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the potential for renewed conflict, which could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Syria.
The role of external powers, particularly the U.S., Turkey, and Russia, remains pivotal in shaping the future of the Syrian political process and the balance of power in the region.
The Astana 22 conference may not yield significant breakthroughs, as key players await clarity on U.S. foreign policy under Trump before committing to new agreements.
Increased military activity in Syria could lead to a resurgence of conflict, particularly if the ceasefire in Idlib collapses, resulting in further humanitarian crises.
The dynamics of power in northeastern Syria may shift dramatically if U.S. forces withdraw, potentially igniting competition between Turkey and the Syrian government for control of the region.
The 'Astana 22' conference, held on November 11-12, 2024, in Kazakhstan, marks a continuation of discussions aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict, which began in 2017. This round comes amid heightened regional tensions following Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, raising questions about its potential outcomes compared to previous meetings.
The agenda for the conference includes bilateral and tripartite consultations, a general session, and discussions on humanitarian issues, reconstruction, and the return of Syrian refugees. However, the effectiveness of these discussions is uncertain given the ongoing geopolitical shifts, particularly with the recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. elections, which could alter the dynamics in Syria.
The guarantor countries—Turkey, Russia, and Iran—are under pressure to coordinate their efforts due to the threat of a regional war and the instability in Idlib, which could lead to further displacement and military escalation. Observers note that the current geopolitical climate may compel the Syrian regime to engage more seriously in the political process, particularly regarding the stalled 'Constitutional Committee.'
Despite the optimism from the opposition regarding potential progress, analysts caution that the Syrian regime and its allies may not be inclined to make concessions, as they perceive themselves to be in a strong position. The Astana process may thus serve more to manage the status quo rather than facilitate substantial political change.
The implications of Trump's presidency on U.S. foreign policy towards Syria are significant, with expectations of a potential withdrawal of U.S. forces from northeastern Syria. This could create a power vacuum that Turkey or the Syrian government might seek to fill, further complicating the already intricate situation in the region.
