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Why Bashar al-Assad's Regime is Taking a Passive Stance Amid Israeli Escalation

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Explore the reasons behind Bashar al-Assad's passive response to Israeli military actions, the complexities of Syria's relationship with Iran, and the influential role of Russia in the region's geopolitical landscape.

Syrian Regime's Lackluster Response to Israeli Escalation

The Syrian regime, led by Bashar al-Assad, has faced criticism for its seemingly lackluster response to Israeli military actions in the region, particularly concerning attacks on Damascus, Lebanon, and Gaza. This response has raised questions about Syria's role as a key player in the so-called axis of resistance against Israel. Despite the ongoing conflict and the heightened tensions following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, the Syrian front has remained relatively calm, with minimal military retaliation. The regime's official media has largely downplayed the situation, focusing instead on the notion of Israeli aggression without taking substantial action.

The Complex Relationship with Iran and Regional Dynamics

One of the striking aspects of the current situation is the Syrian regime's complicated relationship with Iran and its proxies, such as Hezbollah. Historically, Iran has been a significant supporter of Assad, yet recent developments suggest a shift in Syria's alignment. Assad's absence from key Iranian events, including the funeral of President Ebrahim Raisi, has sparked speculation about Syria distancing itself from the Iranian axis. This shift coincides with Assad’s attempts to reintegrate Syria into the Arab League and improve relations with neighboring countries, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian Supreme Leader has expressed concerns over Syria's potential estrangement from the regional equations, indicating dissatisfaction with Assad's recent diplomatic maneuvers.

The Role of Russia in the Syrian Conflict

Russia's involvement in the Syrian conflict has also been pivotal. Following the escalation of hostilities in Gaza, Russian officials have warned against the conflict spreading into Syria. Moscow has taken measures to prevent such an escalation, deploying military police in strategic locations near the Golan Heights. Reports suggest that Russia has been coordinating with Israel to maintain stability in the region, which aligns with Russia's broader geopolitical interests. Furthermore, there have been indications that Putin has advised Assad to avoid deeper involvement in the conflict, emphasizing the need for Syria to maintain a degree of separation from Iran. The Syrian regime's current posture appears to be influenced by these complex international dynamics, as well as internal economic considerations that prioritize stability over military engagement.

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