The ongoing violence in Syria is largely overshadowed by conflicts in neighboring regions, yet it poses significant risks to regional stability.
Assad's reliance on Iranian and Hezbollah support is a critical factor in his ability to maintain power, but it also exposes him to vulnerabilities.
The recent thaw in relations with Gulf states suggests a potential shift in Assad's diplomatic strategy, although his ties with Iran remain strong.
Assad may continue to seek closer ties with Russia and Gulf states to offset his dependence on Iran and Hezbollah.
Increased Israeli airstrikes could lead to further destabilization of Assad's regime, especially if Iranian-backed militias continue to operate in Syria.
The humanitarian crisis in Syria is likely to worsen unless international aid is significantly increased.
Assad's Struggle for Power Amidst Regional Turmoil
As the world focuses on conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, Syria faces a growing crisis largely overlooked by international observers. According to Emile Hokayem, director of the Regional Security Department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the ongoing violence in Syria is escalating, with Israel conducting almost daily airstrikes on Iranian and Syrian military sites, particularly in Damascus. This situation is compounded by the resurgence of the Islamic State group in eastern Syria and the Syrian regime's bombardment of the last opposition stronghold in Idlib, potentially signaling the start of a new ground campaign.
The humanitarian crisis is also deepening, with nearly 17 million people in Syria facing a rapid decline in aid, alongside an influx of over half a million refugees from Lebanon. Hokayem emphasizes that President Bashar al-Assad's regime is heavily reliant on Iranian and Hezbollah support, which he views as a double-edged sword. While these alliances have helped him maintain power, they also expose him to significant risks, particularly from Israeli retaliation against Iranian-backed militias operating in Syria.
Assad's Calculated Risks and Regional Dynamics
Hokayem describes Assad as “weak and easily punished,” noting that his silence on the Gaza conflict stems from a long-standing grudge against Hamas for its support of the Syrian uprising. Despite this, Assad appears to be navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, seeking to reduce his dependence on Iran and Hezbollah. He sees potential in the shifting power dynamics in the region, particularly with Russia and the Gulf states, as avenues for gaining political legitimacy and financial support.
The recent Riyadh conference on Palestinian statehood marked a significant moment for Assad, who was reportedly pleased with his interactions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, indicating a thaw in relations and a potential end to his isolation from the Arab League. However, Hokayem cautions that while some European nations may be reconsidering their stance towards Assad, he is unlikely to sever ties with Iran, viewing such a move as a sign of weakness. Instead, he prefers to remain steadfast, waiting for a more favorable environment to emerge.
The Future of Syria and Assad's Regime
The outlook for Assad's regime remains precarious. While he may find temporary solace in regional engagements, the underlying issues of violence, humanitarian crises, and international isolation persist. Hokayem's analysis suggests that Assad's reliance on Iranian support is unlikely to diminish in the near future, as both parties face significant challenges. The ongoing conflict in Syria, coupled with the complexities of regional politics, means that Assad's grip on power is fraught with uncertainty, and the potential for further escalation remains high.
