With the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, relations between Tehran and Baghdad shifted from hostility to a complex interaction, particularly after the US occupation of Iraq in 2003. This occupation allowed Iran to enhance its influence in Iraq, which became crucial to its regional strategy. The subsequent rise of ISIS in 2014 further facilitated Iran's military involvement through proxy forces, leading to the establishment of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), now part of Iraq’s official security apparatus. Despite this, growing resentment among Iraqis towards Iranian influence has emerged, highlighted by protests in 2019 that targeted Iranian interests, including the burning of the Iranian consulate in Basra.
As tensions between Iran and the US escalated during Donald Trump's presidency, particularly after the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran's dominance in Iraq began to wane. New regional players, including Turkey and Gulf states, have increased their involvement in Iraq, challenging Iran's hegemony. Although Iran has managed to maintain some influence through its political allies, it is no longer the uncontested power it once was before 2018.
The situation has been further complicated by the recent Al-Aqsa Intifada, which saw Iranian-backed groups in Iraq conducting military operations. However, these groups have faced challenges, including internal divisions within the PMF, as factions like the Ansar al-Marja’iyya Brigade have separated from the PMF, indicating a potential decline in Iran's influence.
Looking ahead, Iranian-Iraqi relations are expected to remain complex, influenced by both internal dynamics and regional developments. While Iraq benefits from its ties with Iran economically and in terms of security, it grapples with issues of national sovereignty. As Iraq seeks to balance its relationships with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, Iran's influence may continue to diminish, especially as internal political factions assert their independence. The growing divergence between Iran and the religious leadership in Najaf could further complicate Iran's role in Iraq moving forward.
