Daily Reports
Berlin – With the European elections approaching rapidly, recent surveys indicate that the Union, consisting of CDU and CSU, is poised for a significant victory in Germany. According to the final "Politbarometer Extra" survey by ZDF for the European elections on June 9th, CDU and CSU collectively secure 30 percent of the votes. Should this result be confirmed, the Union would emerge as the dominant force, marginally improving from their 2019 European election result of 28.9 percent.
Supporting these findings, a contemporary Ipsos survey also predicts a clear triumph for the Union in the European elections slated for June 7th. In this survey as well, the CDU and CSU each garner a 30 percent voter share. This consistency across different polls underscores the Union's robust positioning. However, the contest for second place remains fierce, with the Greens, SPD, and AfD all tied at 14 percent, reflecting a competitive and unpredictable race.
Notably, the Greens, led by Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, are anticipated to face substantial losses compared to their 2019 result of 20.5 percent. On the other hand, the newly established Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, BSW, shows promise with an estimated seven percent of votes, while the FDP lags at four percent. The Left and Volt parties both stand at three percent, according to the surveys.
The accuracy of these polls remains subject to change, particularly given that a significant proportion of voters, 42 percent, are still undecided. This variability reflects the mood at the moment and not a guaranteed forecast. Nevertheless, the current voter sentiment suggests a stable turnout, comparable to the 2019 EU elections, with 61 percent of respondents indicating a strong interest in voting.
As the citizens of 27 EU states prepare to elect a new European Parliament, the voting dynamics in France add a unique dimension. 358 million Europeans are called to vote, selecting 720 deputies, including 81 from France. The election marks the last national vote during Emmanuel Macron’s mandate, potentially reshaping the political scenario three years before the next presidential election.
Voter abstention, announced at 52.5 percent, remains a concern that could significantly influence outcomes, particularly given its impact on candidates like ultra-favorite Jordan Bardella. However, expected participation is slightly higher than in 2019 at 50.19 percent, and much above the historic low of 43.1 percent in 2009. This indicates a mixed but potentially engaging voter turnout.
- In Germany, the 2024 European elections occur in a politically charged atmosphere, with significant implications for national and EU politics. The Union’s strong showing in the polls suggests a possible reassertion of its influence in European legislative processes.
- France's electoral landscape in these EU elections will likely serve as a barometer for Emmanuel Macron's support and the relative strength of opposition parties. A higher voter turnout can counteract the traditional abstention trend in the country, offering a more representative outcome.
