Daily Reports
The Complex Dynamics Between Turkey and Iran
Recent events have thrown a spotlight on the robust yet intricate relations between Turkey and Iran. Following the tragic helicopter crash that claimed the life of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the Turkish government promptly extended its aid in locating the wreckage. A Turkish drone was mobilized to the accident site, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed condolences to Iran, highlighting the sustained peace efforts by Raisi. This incident underscores the deep and multifaceted alliance between the two nations.
Beyond immediate diplomatic gestures, Turkey and Iran share a covert yet pivotal economic relationship. In an attempt to bypass stringent Western sanctions against Iran, Turkish business and governmental figures have been instrumental. This was notably evidenced in the 2019 testimony by Reza Zarrab, a gold dealer, who revealed in a New York court how Turkish officials, with the blessing of then Prime Minister Erdogan, participated in laundering billions of dollars for Iran. Such economic maneuvers have historically cemented the camaraderie between the two countries.
Moreover, the trial showcased the involvement of Turkey's state-owned Halkbank in these financial operations. Zarrab detailed how the bank facilitated the trade of gold to fund Iranian oil and gas deals, bypassing US sanctions. This trial had significant implications, with notable Turkish figures like former Economy Minister Zafer Caglayan and Halkbank's deputy head Mehmet Hakan Atilla being accused of laundering vast sums. Despite the judicial consequences, these economic collaborations highlight the interdependency of the two nations.
Politically, both countries have found common ground against Israel, consistently opposing the administration of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The most recent meeting between Raisi and Erdogan reaffirmed their mutual desire to strengthen bilateral ties. Amid economic crises and international isolation, both countries have leaned on each other more heavily. Turkey's reliance on Iranian natural gas and oil, juxtaposed with Iran's need for foreign currency through Turkish trade, buttresses their alliance.
The sudden death of President Raisi raises questions about Iran's political stability and future leadership. Although the true power in Iran rests with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi's demise propels Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, closer to potential succession. This hereditary transition may challenge the Islamic Republic's legitimacy, which positions itself as distinct from the monarchies it historically opposed. The situation might also inflame domestic discontent, especially from those who view the regime as increasingly corrupt and autocratic.
- Raisi's death has placed Vice President Mohammad Mojber as the interim president, with elections mandated to occur within 50 days. This election, likely to be heavily monitored by the Guardian Council, is expected to uphold the status quo in Iran. Therefore, significant policy shifts or changes in governance are improbable in the immediate future.
- The geopolitical ramifications of this transition extend beyond Iran's borders. Given the deep-seated economic and political ties between Iran and Turkey, any instability in Iran could directly impact Turkey. Both nations will likely continue to navigate their alliance amidst sanctions, economic crises, and a shared opposition to Western influence in the region.
- Grassroots discontent in Iran, accentuated by events like the violent crackdown following Mahsa Amini's death, suggests a volatile domestic landscape. The potential for protests and civil unrest looms, especially if perceived autocratic transitions in leadership occur, making the political atmosphere in Iran one to watch closely.
