The RSF's reliance on guerrilla tactics has proven ineffective against a more organized Sudanese army.
International support plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the conflict, with shifting allegiances impacting military outcomes.
The potential for Hemedti to declare a semi-autonomous region in Darfur highlights the ongoing fragmentation within Sudan.
Continued military confrontations between the RSF and the Sudanese army are likely, with the army gaining further territorial control.
Hemedti may seek refuge in Ethiopia if he faces defeat in Khartoum, leading to a possible reconfiguration of power in Sudan.
The situation could evolve towards a declaration of independence for Darfur if Hemedti consolidates power in that region.
The Decline of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, are facing significant military setbacks in Sudan. Recent losses in both eastern and western regions, particularly the strategic Jebel Moya area in Sennar State, have severely hampered their operations. This area, which borders Ethiopia, was crucial for the RSF's supply lines, and its loss has forced the group to rely solely on their bases in Darfur, complicating their military logistics.
Experts attribute the RSF's decline to several factors. Dr. Muhammad Turshin, a specialist in Sudanese affairs, notes that the RSF's guerrilla warfare strategy, which relied on surprise attacks, has faltered as the Sudanese army has adapted and reorganized. Additionally, the army has successfully recruited new personnel and acquired advanced military equipment, shifting the balance of power in their favor. Political analyst Mohamed Gamal Arafa highlights the role of local forces, particularly those with prior combat experience from the South Sudan conflict, who have joined the army, further enhancing its military capabilities.
International Dynamics and Future Scenarios
On the international front, Hemedti's support is waning. Reports indicate that key allies, including Russia and the former Wagner Group, are distancing themselves from the RSF. Meanwhile, the Sudanese army has garnered support from Egypt, which, despite its official stance of neutrality, has been perceived as backing the army due to security concerns regarding border stability and asylum seekers.
The U.S. has also taken a more critical stance against Hemedti, imposing sanctions on RSF commanders for human rights violations. This shift in international support could have lasting implications for the RSF's future.
Looking ahead, analysts predict that the military confrontations will persist, with the Sudanese army likely to gain control over more territories, including the city of Singa. This could lead to a potential defeat for Hemedti, forcing him to retreat to Ethiopia or seek to establish a semi-autonomous region in Darfur, reminiscent of South Sudan's path to independence. The situation remains fluid, with the possibility of further escalations as both sides vie for control in a deeply fractured Sudan.
