The Syrian opposition's recent territorial gains indicate a potential shift in the balance of power within the ongoing conflict, highlighting the impact of external geopolitical factors on local dynamics.
The reduction of foreign military support for the Syrian regime, particularly from Russia and Iran, raises questions about its long-term sustainability and ability to maintain control over previously held territories.
The opposition's strategy of rapid, coordinated assaults may reflect a new phase in their military operations, capitalizing on the perceived vulnerabilities of the regime.
The ongoing conflict in Syria is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with the opposition potentially gaining further ground if the regime's support remains diminished.
Increased territorial control by the opposition could lead to a reconfiguration of alliances and power dynamics within Syria, possibly drawing in new external actors or altering the strategies of existing ones.
Military expert Brigadier General Elias Hanna has stated that the Syrian opposition is engaged in a prolonged battle against the regime, which has lost the support of its allies. Recent developments in Syria have seen the armed opposition factions gain control over strategic areas in central Aleppo and the Idlib countryside, marking a significant shift in the conflict after five years of relative stagnation.
Within a short span of 48 hours, the opposition seized key locations including Maarat al-Numan, eastern Saraqib, Abu al-Duhur military airport, and Kafranbel. This offensive is attributed to a 'strategic geopolitical earthquake' in the region, influenced by recent conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Syrian Ministry of Defense claims to have regained lost positions and is actively confronting what it labels as 'terrorist groups,' asserting heavy losses inflicted on the opposition. However, Brigadier General Hanna suggests that the regime's military capabilities have been severely diminished due to the diversion of Russian forces to Ukraine and the absence of Wagner Group support in Syria.
Hanna emphasized that the current military landscape is a result of a long-prepared vacuum, allowing the opposition to expand its influence. He noted that the previous levels of Russian and Iranian support for the regime have significantly waned, making the regime's ability to counter the opposition's advances increasingly challenging.
Despite the ongoing conflict, Hanna does not foresee a confrontation between the opposition factions and Kurdish forces, citing the presence of American troops east of the Euphrates as a stabilizing factor. The opposition's recent offensive, named 'Deterrence of Aggression,' is a direct response to escalating regime attacks and mobilizations against their strongholds.
