Future Balance of Power in the French National Assembly
The National Rally (RN) has emerged as the big winner in the first round of Sunday's legislative elections, securing 33.5% of the votes. According to projections by Ifop-Fiducial for Le Figaro, the RN could send between 240 and 270 deputies to the National Assembly. This would mark a significant increase from their previous count, gaining at least 150 more elected officials compared to 2022. However, they would still fall short of an absolute majority, which requires 289 deputies.
Projections and Methodologies
The New Popular Front (NUPES) secured 28.5% of the votes and is projected to have between 180 and 200 elected officials. The presidential coalition Ensemble! garnered 22.10% of the votes and could have between 60 and 90 elected officials. The Republicans (LR) received 9.70% of the votes and are projected to have between 30 and 50 deputies. The remaining seats in the hemicycle would be filled by various left (DVG), various right (DVD), and regionalists, accounting for 13 to 21 deputies.
Pollsters use the results of 500 representative polling stations to establish these projections. An algorithm scrutinizes these local results, taking into account historical election data to deduce a 'level of overall victory' for each party. However, these projections are subject to many uncertainties, such as the configuration of the second round and the voting instructions given by the parties.
Uncertainties and Future Projections
Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise (LFI) has urged his candidates to withdraw in any triangular scenario to prevent the RN from gaining more seats. Similarly, Gabriel Attal from the presidential camp has announced withdrawals in many constituencies to beat the RN. Édouard Philippe has also called on Horizons candidates to withdraw to avoid the election of RN or LFI deputies, even if it means voting for communists.
Different polling institutes have provided varying projections. Elabe's estimates for BFMTV, RMC, and La Tribune suggest that Marine Le Pen’s RN could secure up to 310 seats, while the New Popular Front could get between 115 and 145 seats, and the presidential camp between 90 and 120 seats. Ipsos projects up to 165 seats for the New Popular Front and 41 to 61 for the Republicans. More reliable projections are expected by Tuesday, July 2, after the application or withdrawal deadline for candidates in the second round.
- The composition of the National Assembly is set to change significantly following the legislative elections. The French have placed the National Rally (RN) and its allies within the Republicans in the lead in terms of the number of votes. The second round of elections, scheduled for Sunday, July 7, will determine the final composition of the Assembly.
- Polling institutes have been working to project the future hemicycle composition. According to Ipsos, the RN and its allies could obtain between 230 and 280 seats, just below the absolute majority of 289 seats. The New Popular Front is expected to secure between 125 and 165 seats, while the outgoing presidential majority is projected to have between 70 and 100 seats. The Republicans are projected to have between 41 and 61 seats, followed by other smaller political groups.
- These projections are still subject to many limitations. The second round campaign is just beginning, and qualified candidates may withdraw or call for votes in favor of other opponents. Additionally, unforeseen events in the coming days could influence voter decisions.
