Japan's Ruling Party Faces Historic Setback in Legislative Elections
In a significant political shift, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by newly appointed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has reportedly lost its majority in the lower house of parliament following the general elections held on October 27, 2024. This marks the first time since 2009 that the LDP has faced such a setback, raising questions about the stability of the current coalition government with its partner, Komeito.
Initial projections from NHK indicated that the LDP secured between 153 and 219 seats, while the total for the coalition remained uncertain, with the required majority set at 233 seats out of 465. The LDP's long-standing dominance in Japanese politics, having been in power for nearly 69 years, is now under threat due to internal strife and public discontent stemming from a recent funding scandal.
Voter Turnout and Public Sentiment
Voter turnout was reported at 29% as of two hours before polls closed, slightly down from 31.6% during the last legislative elections in 2021. Approximately 20% of registered voters opted for early voting, reflecting a growing engagement among the electorate despite the LDP's controversies. Shigeru Ishiba, who took office on October 1, had called for early elections to consolidate his power, emphasizing a desire for a
new Japan.
However, his party's involvement in a financial scandal has overshadowed his agenda, causing significant backlash from voters.
Ishiba's promises included enhancing national security, supporting low-income households, and revitalizing rural areas. Despite these pledges, the LDP's struggles with public trust, particularly after the resignation of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, have complicated Ishiba's position. Critics have noted that Ishiba's campaign has been marred by his party's financial missteps, which he had vowed to distance himself from.
Opposition Gains Amidst Political Turmoil
The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has seen a notable increase in its parliamentary representation, with projections suggesting an increase to around 191 seats. Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, leading the CDP, criticized the LDP's policies, asserting that the party favors those with financial clout. However, the fragmented nature of the opposition may hinder its ability to capitalize on the LDP's vulnerabilities.
Analysts predict that the LDP's electoral failure could trigger volatility in financial markets, a sentiment echoed by various media outlets. As the dust settles from this election, the future of Shigeru Ishiba's leadership remains uncertain, with speculation about potential resignations or shifts in power dynamics within the coalition government. Should the LDP fail to secure a majority, it may be forced to seek alliances with smaller parties, complicating governance and policy implementation in the coming months.
