National Rally Faces Uphill Battle in French Parliamentary Elections
Recent opinion polls indicate that Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) is struggling to secure an absolute majority in the upcoming second round of French parliamentary elections. According to the latest Ipsosper Le Monde poll, the RN, along with its allies from Ciotti's Républicains, is projected to win between 175 and 205 seats, falling short of the 289-seat threshold required for an absolute majority. This reflects a broader trend of the RN's diminishing prospects, as another poll conducted by the French Institute of Public Opinion for LCI and Le Figaro shows the party securing between 210 and 240 seats, a decline from earlier projections of 240 to 270 seats.
Popular Front Gains Momentum
The New Popular Front (NPF), a leftist alliance, appears to be gaining ground, with projections placing them at 145-175 seats according to Ipsosper Le Monde, and 170-200 seats according to the French Institute of Public Opinion. This surge is partly attributed to a strategic withdrawal by over 200 candidates from various political backgrounds, aimed at consolidating support for those most likely to defeat RN candidates. The 'Together' alliance, led by President Emmanuel Macron, is also showing signs of growth, with estimates ranging from 118 to 148 seats, while the conservative Républicains, excluding Ciotti's faction, are expected to win between 57 and 67 seats.
Despite the RN's strong showing in the first round, the party has acknowledged that it will not attempt to govern without an absolute majority, a stance reiterated by both Marine Le Pen and party president Jordan Bardella. They have criticized the Popular Front for what they perceive as a disregard for RN voters.
- The RN's struggle to secure an absolute majority highlights the effectiveness of the Popular Front's strategy to block the far-right party. This tactic has involved a significant number of candidates withdrawing to support the most viable contenders against the RN.
- The shifting dynamics in the French parliamentary landscape indicate a highly competitive second round, with no single party or alliance poised to dominate. The growing support for the New Popular Front and the 'Together' alliance underscores the fragmented nature of French politics, where coalition-building will be essential for governance.
