Hezbollah's Strategic Restraint Amid Rising Tensions with Israel
Hezbollah, often cited as the most powerful non-state military force in the world, possesses an arsenal that rivals many Middle Eastern armies, including that of Lebanon itself. According to a recent report by The Telegraph, the group has guided missiles capable of striking any city in Israel. Despite these capabilities, Hezbollah's response to Israeli provocations has been notably restrained.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has publicly warned that any Israeli airstrikes on his strongholds in southern Beirut will provoke a retaliatory missile barrage targeting Tel Aviv. However, the group's leadership appears reluctant to escalate the conflict further. This restraint may be influenced by Iran, which fears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could involve the United States in a larger conflict, thereby diminishing Iran's strategic position.
Recent Israeli airstrikes have targeted Beirut, resulting in the deaths of key Hezbollah commanders. In response, Hezbollah has launched its most intense rocket barrage across the border and declared an “open battle of reckoning” with Israel. Yet, they have refrained from targeting Israeli population centers or deploying their most advanced weaponry. This hesitation raises questions about the motivations behind Hezbollah's cautious approach.
Experts suggest that Iran is actively working to limit Hezbollah's military engagement to preserve its deterrent capabilities against potential Israeli strikes on its nuclear program. The more missiles Hezbollah launches, the more it risks diminishing Iran's strategic leverage. Additionally, local public opinion and the fear of falling into an Israeli trap may contribute to Hezbollah's reluctance to escalate the conflict.
Despite possessing a more formidable arsenal than in the 2006 conflict, Lebanese commentator Qassem Kassir, who has ties to Hezbollah, believes that the group's strategy favors a long, attritional confrontation to weaken Israel over time rather than immediate escalation.
