The Israeli airstrikes on Iran are seen as a calculated move to avoid provoking a strong retaliation, indicating a shift in Israel's military strategy due to its ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
Russia's role as a mediator and potential intelligence provider highlights its strategic partnership with Iran, which is significant in the context of broader geopolitical dynamics, including the situation in Ukraine.
The internal pressures within Israel, exacerbated by the regional actions of Iranian allies, suggest that the conflict may be evolving into a more complex confrontation with far-reaching implications for regional stability.
The ongoing conflict may lead to increased military engagements, but both Israel and Iran appear to be exercising caution to avoid full-scale war.
As tensions escalate, there may be a push for diplomatic efforts from external powers, including Russia, to mediate the situation and prevent further violence.
The internal crises within Israel could lead to political changes or shifts in military strategy as the government responds to the pressures from Iranian-backed groups.
Thick smoke rose over the Iranian city of Qom following Israeli airstrikes early Saturday, prompting a swift response from Russia. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova expressed deep concern over the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, urging both sides to exercise restraint to avoid a catastrophic scenario. Russian analysts noted that the Israeli attack was carefully calculated to avoid provoking a significant retaliatory response from Tehran. According to strategic affairs analyst Roland Begamov, the strike was designed to demonstrate Israel's military capabilities without crossing critical thresholds that could lead to major conflict.
The Israeli strike, while showcasing its military prowess, was viewed as a sign of Israel's diminishing ability to launch destructive attacks against regional powers like Iran, especially amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. The attacks have not only raised tensions but have also led to internal crises within Israel as Iranian allies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, exert pressure through various means. Middle Eastern affairs expert Andrei Ontikov highlighted that Israel's military response did not match the scale of Iranian provocations, indicating a shift in the balance of power and engagement rules in the region.
Despite the recent airstrikes, the damage inflicted on Iran was termed 'marginal,' suggesting that the primary goal of the Israeli operation was to create a psychological impact rather than achieve substantial military objectives. Analysts speculate that Russia may have provided Iran with preemptive intelligence regarding the strikes, reflecting the strategic alliance between Moscow and Tehran, which extends beyond the Middle East to broader geopolitical issues.
