Hezbollah's Strategic Calculations Amid Regional Tensions
In a recent analysis, Major General Fayez Al-Duwairi, a military and strategic expert, shed light on Hezbollah's decision-making process regarding its military responses to Israeli actions. Despite previous threats, Hezbollah refrained from implementing its deterrence strategy, which involved bombing Tel Aviv in retaliation for attacks on Beirut. Al-Duwairi attributes this restraint to Hezbollah's internal calculations and the current geopolitical landscape, particularly the perceived weakness of the U.S. administration under President Biden.
The expert noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be attempting to shift the dynamics in the region, which may have influenced Hezbollah's actions. Al-Duwairi emphasized that while Iran has remained relatively inactive following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, other groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Iraqi resistance factions have begun to offer limited support to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah's recent missile strikes on military sites in Haifa, utilizing “Fadi 1” and “Fadi 2” missiles, marked a significant escalation in military engagement since the onset of border clashes approximately a year ago. These strikes resulted in injuries among Israeli forces and considerable material damage, showcasing Hezbollah's capability to target strategic sites despite its previous restraint regarding high-profile targets like ammonia plants in Haifa.
Al-Duwairi explained that Hezbollah's strategy involves a calculated approach to targeting, where they have identified various Israeli military installations as either strategic or decisive. This careful selection of targets is indicative of their desire to maintain a balance of deterrence without escalating to a full-scale ground war. The expert concluded that while Hezbollah has the capability to strike key Israeli locations, it is cautious about provoking a broader conflict that could destabilize the region further.
