The recent European Parliament elections have demonstrated a significant shift in political dynamics across the continent, marked by the rise of fringe parties and the strengthening of pro-Russia and pro-China sentiments. Right-wing populists and left-wing factions are gaining considerable influence, often voting in the interests of Moscow and Beijing. This shift raises concerns about the future of EU foreign policy and its stance on international issues like the Ukraine war and human rights in China.
Prominent political figures like Sahra Wagenknecht have already started leveraging their newfound influence. Wagenknecht's BSW party secured 6.2% of the votes, more than twice the share of the Left party from which it emerged. Wagenknecht's quick move to suggest negotiations with Russia and her opposition to arms deliveries to Ukraine reflect the broader sentiment among these fringe groups. Both the extreme left and right aim to restore economic relations with Russia, preferring cheap gas supplies over supporting Ukraine.
Putin and China have been strategically courting these political factions. The far-right parties have shown a tendency to align with autocratic regimes, with many openly supporting Putin's agenda. A study by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation reveals Beijing's calculated steps to increase its influence within the EU, targeting both left-wing and right-wing populist parties. These efforts manifest in frequent pro-China votes and abstentions on human rights resolutions put forth by the EU Parliament.
The right-wing bloc, particularly the Identity and Democracy (ID) faction, saw moderate gains. Parties like the AfD in Germany and the FPÖ in Austria marked increases in their vote shares, underscoring the growing appeal of pro-Russian narratives. Despite internal divisions, these gains indicate a growing normalization of far-right and nationalist positions within European politics. This shift is worrying for traditional proponents of EU integration and human rights standards.
The elections in individual countries like France, Belgium, and Spain further illustrate this trend. In France, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) became the strongest party with 31.5% of the votes, a significant endorsement of Marine Le Pen's leadership, who has been accused of receiving financial support from Moscow. In Spain, the center-right Popular Party (PP) won the most votes, but the rise of far-right parties Vox and 'The party is over' poised new challenges, aggregating 14.20% of the votes combined.
Notably, these developments have led to significant political shake-ups. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo resigned following his party's poor performance, and in Spain, Yolanda Diaz of the center-left Sumar announced her resignation, acknowledging the disappointing results. Meanwhile, the decline of parties like Ciudadanos, which lost its European Parliament representation, highlights the volatile political landscape.
- One of the critical concerns emanating from this shift is the potential alteration in EU foreign policy. With fringe parties having more speaking time and influence in the European Parliament, the spread of pro-Russian and pro-China narratives is likely to increase. This could impact not just EU's stance on ongoing conflicts like in Ukraine but also on broader geopolitical alignments.
- Experts argue that the normalization of far-right and far-left views could disrupt efforts to maintain a unified EU policy on sanctions against Russia or condemnations of China's human rights record. Katharina Osthoff of the Naumann Foundation warned that could make it increasingly difficult to sustain a critical policy towards these autocratic regimes.
- In Spain, despite the Popular Party's electoral win, the broader implications of the rise of Vox and 'The party is over' suggest a fragmentation of conventional political divisions. The results point towards an electorate increasingly disillusioned with centrist policies, simultaneously pushing for more radical changes and reflecting a broader European trend.
