Hemedti's accusations against Egypt highlight the complex interplay of regional politics and military dynamics in Sudan.
The situation underscores the fragility of alliances in the region, particularly as external influences, such as Ethiopia's role, come into play.
Egypt's strategic interests in Sudan are closely tied to its national security concerns, particularly regarding the flow of refugees.
If Hemedti continues to lose ground militarily, Egypt may solidify its support for Burhan's government, enhancing military cooperation.
Should Hemedti regain strength, Egypt might be compelled to negotiate with him, despite previous tensions.
A political resolution could emerge, allowing for a recalibration of Egypt's relationship with both Hemedti and Burhan.
On October 9, 2024, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, the commander of the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces, launched a sudden and violent attack against Egypt, accusing it of being responsible for his forces' recent failures, particularly in the strategic Jebel Moya area of Sennar State. Hemedti's accusations included claims that Egypt was involved in training and supporting the Sudanese army, which he described as dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. He also accused Egypt of obstructing peace negotiations aimed at stabilizing Sudan and declared a trade ban on Sudanese goods exported to Egypt, labeling it an 'open enemy.'
The escalation in rhetoric from Hemedti is attributed to several factors, both internal and external. Internally, his forces faced significant military setbacks, particularly in Jebel Moya and Darfur, leading to a search for a scapegoat for their failures. Externally, Hemedti's statements may reflect a decline in regional support for him, particularly in the context of rising tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam. Hemedti's relationship with Ethiopia has strengthened, which could be seen as a strategic maneuver to counter Egyptian influence in the Horn of Africa.
The Egyptian government has denied Hemedti's accusations but faces questions regarding its support for the Sudanese military. Historically, Egypt has sought to maintain a neutral stance while also aiming to secure its interests, particularly concerning the Renaissance Dam. However, as Hemedti's military position weakens, Egypt may find itself increasingly aligned with the Sudanese army led by Burhan, especially given the threat Hemedti poses to Egypt's national security, including the influx of refugees from Sudan.
Looking ahead, three potential scenarios could shape the relationship between Egypt and Hemedti: 1) Continued military setbacks for Hemedti leading to increased cooperation between Egypt and the Sudanese army; 2) A resurgence of Hemedti's influence, forcing Egypt to recalibrate its approach; or 3) A political settlement between Hemedti and Burhan, potentially mediated by regional powers, which could redefine Egypt's engagement with Hemedti.
