Escalating Conflict in Darfur: A Shift in Military Dynamics
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, particularly in the Darfur region, has seen a significant shift over the past few months. After 18 months of war, military operations have expanded beyond the city of El Fasher, moving north and west as joint forces allied with the army seek to regain territory from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This change in strategy comes amid increasing concerns that the conflict could escalate into an ethnic war, exacerbated by reports of village burnings, forced displacements, and ethnic-based violations in North Darfur State.
The RSF currently controls most of Darfur, with notable exceptions including the localities of Rokoro, Golo, and Nertiti, as well as parts of North Darfur where army and joint forces are deployed. In recent months, the RSF has besieged El Fasher, recognizing its political significance, yet they have failed to capture the city.
Military Engagements and Tactical Shifts
Since late September, the joint forces have launched a series of military campaigns in North Darfur, claiming to have inflicted significant losses on the RSF, including the seizure of combat vehicles and the capture of numerous fighters. Major Ahmed Hussein, a spokesman for the joint forces, stated that their strategy has transitioned from a defensive posture to an offensive one, allowing them to reclaim control over key areas and disrupt RSF operations.
Despite these claims, the RSF has countered with its own assertions of victory, stating they have successfully engaged the joint forces and maintained control in several areas. The conflicting reports from both sides highlight the chaotic nature of the battlefield and the ongoing struggle for dominance in the region.
Concerns Over Ethnic Violence and Future Implications
Military experts have raised alarms about the potential for the conflict to devolve into ethnic violence, particularly following reports of RSF-aligned militias burning villages and displacing thousands of residents. Observers suggest that the RSF's strategic miscalculations, including overextension into Khartoum and other regions, may have weakened their position in Darfur, allowing the joint forces to capitalize on their vulnerabilities.
As the situation evolves, experts predict continued back-and-forth military operations, with the joint forces likely to leverage the RSF's preoccupation with other fronts. The balance of power appears to be shifting in favor of the joint forces, who have gained control over strategic locations, potentially altering the dynamics of the conflict in the coming months.
