The COP29 summit's discussions are likely to be heavily influenced by the U.S. election results, particularly regarding financial commitments for climate action.
China's proactive stance on climate cooperation suggests that despite U.S. political shifts, other nations may seek to strengthen climate alliances.
The potential for increased global warming underscores the urgency for countries to finalize their long-term climate commitments ahead of COP30 next year.
If Donald Trump is re-elected, there may be a significant regression in U.S. climate policy, impacting international cooperation and funding for climate initiatives.
A re-election of Trump could lead to heightened tensions among nations regarding climate commitments, as countries may feel compelled to adjust their strategies in anticipation of U.S. withdrawal from global agreements.
Conversely, a victory for Kamala Harris could reinforce global climate cooperation, encouraging nations to increase their financial commitments and collaborative efforts.
World leaders are set to convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29 on climate finance from November 12-13, just one week after the pivotal U.S. presidential election on November 5. This meeting is crucial as it will be the first major diplomatic event following the election results, which could significantly influence global climate policy and financial commitments to developing countries.
The outcome of the U.S. election holds substantial implications for international climate negotiations, particularly if Donald Trump is re-elected. Trump previously withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and has signaled intentions to do so again, which could lead to a crisis in climate cooperation among nations. Li Shuo from the Asia Society Policy Institute noted that countries like China are preparing to send a message of continued climate collaboration, regardless of the election outcome.
The COP29 summit aims to establish a new financial target to assist developing nations in combating climate change, replacing the previous €100 billion per year goal set in 2009, which was only marginally met in 2022. However, geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, complicate these discussions, as developed nations face budgetary constraints and competing priorities.
With nearly 1.3°C of warming already observed, the stakes for climate action are higher than ever. Experts warn that current commitments are leading the world towards a potential 2.6°C to 2.8°C increase by 2100, far exceeding the goals of the Paris Agreement. Decisions made at COP29 could significantly impact global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C, as emphasized by Cosima Cassel from E3G.
The U.S. election is being characterized as a momentous event that could reshape not just American democracy but the global geopolitical landscape. The contest between Trump and Kamala Harris highlights stark differences in policy approaches, particularly regarding international relations and climate commitments. Harris's campaign emphasizes a continuation of Biden's policies, including support for Ukraine and NATO, while Trump advocates for an isolationist stance and has previously expressed support for aggressive trade measures.
