Bashar al-Assad's Stubbornness and Its Consequences
Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria is facing significant challenges due to its refusal to make necessary concessions and its inability to reform, as highlighted by Le Monde. The Syrian government is paying a steep price for its intransigence, particularly following a recent resurgence of rebel control in Aleppo, which has occurred amid a weakened pro-Iranian camp due to Israeli strikes in the region. The report emphasizes that Assad's military, alongside Iranian and Hezbollah forces, has shown little resistance, indicating a critical decline in the regime's power.
The Fragmentation of Assad's Authority
Despite the support of powerful allies like Russia and Iran, Assad has struggled to regain control over all Syrian territories, resulting in a fragmented state lacking resources and the ability to rebuild. The newspaper notes that Assad's focus remains on retaining power rather than demonstrating strength, which has led to a precarious situation for the regime. Researcher Reem Turkmani from the London School of Economics points out that Assad's primary goal is survival, even at the cost of national integrity.
Regional Dynamics and International Responses
The geopolitical landscape surrounding Syria has also shifted, with Turkey seeking autonomy for Idlib to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. However, Assad's refusal to negotiate with Ankara complicates the situation further. Following Syria's reintegration into the Arab League in 2023, expectations for cooperation on refugee returns and drug smuggling have not been met, resulting in a superficial normalization of relations. Experts suggest that Assad may resort to a brinkmanship strategy reminiscent of his father, Hafez, to maintain his grip on power. Meanwhile, Western nations, including the United States and European allies, are now calling for de-escalation in Syria, a stark contrast to their earlier efforts to oust Assad during the early years of the conflict.
