Daily Reports
Ukraine Peace Conference Aims to Garner Global South Support
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is intensively campaigning to attract important states from the global south to participate in the upcoming Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland. Key countries such as India, Brazil, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and even China are being courted for their involvement, despite their stance of 'pro-Russian neutrality.' While China has officially declined, recent meetings between Ukrainian and Chinese vice foreign ministers in Beijing signal potential soft engagements.
Security expert and former US NATO ambassador Kurt Volker believes that even a lower-level Chinese delegation would be a minor success for Ukraine. Volker emphasized that the West needs to convince Beijing that constructive participation aligns with China’s interests, as China has shown interest in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Over 160 countries have been invited to the June 15-16 conference, which will dissect parts of Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan.
Challenges and Opportunities
Recruitment efforts for the conference are ongoing, despite significant pushback from Russia. Moscow has been working to discredit the conference among developing nations. Notably, Zelensky criticized China at the Shangri-La Dialogue, accusing it of being an instrument of Russia under Putin's influence. These political dynamics only heighten the stakes for countries like India, which has agreed to send a delegation, potentially excluding its arch-rival China.
Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan have declined to participate, with Brazil and China promoting an alternative peace strategy that does not mandate Russia’s withdrawal from occupied territories. South Africa also cited scheduling conflicts due to its parliamentary elections. The conference agenda remains narrowly focused to ensure broader acceptance, covering issues like the return of kidnapped Ukrainian children, prisoner exchanges, and nuclear safety.
In a parallel narrative, international negotiations may provide a necessary framework for Zelensky to navigate the complex political landscape, potentially alleviating his personal responsibility. Such negotiations would require support from Western allies, particularly the United States, which has vested interests in maintaining its positions on international democracy and NATO’s expansion. Even so, Zelensky faces formidable internal opposition from hardline nationalists who view any peace negotiation with suspicion.
With these dynamics in play, the Ukraine peace conference in Switzerland seeks to lay the groundwork for more extensive and inclusive peace negotiations that could eventually offer a path out of the ongoing conflict.
- The upcoming Ukraine peace conference is a significant diplomatic effort, not only for Ukraine but also for its allies. The presence and support of global south countries could amplify the legitimacy of the conference’s outcomes and pressurize Russia to engage in meaningful negotiations.
- President Zelensky’s promises to recover all lost territories, including those lost pre-2014, have set high expectations among Ukrainians, adding pressure on him to deliver tangible results from the peace process. However, the pragmatic approach acknowledges that a full resolution of the conflict will be a long and multifaceted process, requiring persistent international involvement.
- Future diplomatic talks could benefit from the lessons learned during the Istanbul negotiations, which showed promise in the early stages of the war. Including broader European security frameworks could enhance the durability of any peace agreement.
- Addressing hardline nationalist sentiments within Ukraine is essential. Their significant influence could undermine peace initiatives if not managed carefully. Ensuring that any peace efforts are perceived as inclusive and representative could help mitigate internal opposition.
