Türkiye's Strategic Interests in the Syrian Conflict
Türkiye is navigating a complex landscape in Syria, particularly following the recent offensive by Syrian armed opposition fighters in northwestern Syria. Analysts suggest that Turkey's cautious approach is driven by its desire to facilitate the return of approximately 3 million Syrian refugees and to mitigate the Kurdish threat along its southern border. Despite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's refusal to engage with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Türkiye is poised to play a significant role in shaping Syria's future.
The offensive, termed 'Operation Deterrence,' was anticipated by experts who noted that Turkey had previously restrained the rebels from advancing, likely due to the geopolitical dynamics involving Russia's support for the Syrian regime. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that interpreting these developments as foreign intervention would be misguided.
The Evolving Dynamics Between Türkiye and Syrian Groups
Türkiye's relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group leading the recent offensive, is intricate. While Ankara has actively sought to limit HTS's influence in its designated security zone, it has also pressured the group to distance itself from al-Qaeda and cease attacks on minority communities. Experts indicate that HTS has evolved since 2020, complicating Türkiye's ability to control its actions.
Historically, relations between Ankara and Damascus have been fraught, especially since the onset of the Syrian conflict in 2011. However, Erdogan's recent overtures to Assad signal a potential shift, with Ankara hoping to negotiate a political solution that could facilitate the return of refugees. The ongoing conflict has left Türkiye as a pivotal player, with Iran and Russia likely needing to engage with Ankara to reach a resolution.
As the situation unfolds, Türkiye's military incursions against Kurdish forces, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), highlight its ongoing security concerns. The recent capture of the Kurdish-held town of Tal Rifaat by pro-Turkish factions underscores Türkiye's commitment to countering Kurdish groups it deems terrorist organizations. Fidan reiterated that Türkiye will not tolerate any attempts by these groups to exploit the instability in Syria.
