The ongoing conflict in Sudan highlights the complexities of post-revolutionary power dynamics, where initial cooperation can quickly devolve into violence as underlying tensions surface.
The humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict underscores the urgent need for effective international intervention focused on both immediate relief and long-term political solutions.
If the current trajectory continues, the Sudanese army may further consolidate power, potentially sidelining the RSF and altering the political landscape in Sudan.
Increased foreign interventions may complicate the conflict, leading to a protracted struggle rather than a swift resolution.
Sudan is facing a deepening crisis as fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues, with over 150,000 reported deaths and more than 10 million displaced since the conflict began in April 2023. The humanitarian situation is catastrophic, as highlighted in a recent episode of Al Jazeera's program 'The Story Continues'.
Experts suggest that the roots of the crisis lie in a fragile alliance formed after the ousting of former President Omar al-Bashir, which included military forces, civilian groups, and armed movements from Darfur. The alliance, initially united in their goal to remove al-Bashir, has since fractured, leading to escalating tensions and conflict.
The Sudanese army has recently shifted its military strategy, moving from a defensive to an offensive position against the RSF. This change is attributed to the army's combat experience and tactical adjustments, alongside the use of air and artillery support to disrupt RSF supply lines.
The future of the RSF remains uncertain, with debates on whether it should be integrated into the armed forces or dismantled due to its alleged violations. Regional and international interventions are also being scrutinized for their potential to either resolve or exacerbate the conflict.
