Somali-Ethiopian Reconciliation: A Historic Agreement
On December 11, Turkey facilitated a significant agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, marking a pivotal moment in their long-standing disputes. This agreement, described as 'historic,' resolves a legal conflict stemming from Ethiopia's earlier agreement with the Republic of Somaliland. Under the new terms, Ethiopia will gain a 20-square-kilometer area around the Somali port of Berbera for 50 years, in exchange for recognizing Somaliland and receiving a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. The deal aims to enhance Ethiopia's access to maritime routes, crucial for its trade and economic stability, while also initiating technical dialogues to address ongoing issues.
Implications for Egypt and Regional Dynamics
The agreement has raised concerns in Egypt, which has been strengthening its ties with Somalia, particularly after a defense agreement was signed in August 2023. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has expressed unwavering support for Somalia's sovereignty, especially following the suspension of negotiations over the controversial Renaissance Dam. Egypt's military support to Somalia and its plans to participate in upcoming African peacekeeping missions have been met with apprehension from Ethiopia, which views these moves as a threat to its national security. The evolving situation has prompted Egypt to seek a tripartite alliance with Somalia and Eritrea, both of which share concerns about Ethiopia's maritime ambitions.
Egypt's Strategic Alternatives
In light of the new agreement, Egypt faces critical choices regarding its strategy in the Horn of Africa. One option is to solidify its alliance with Somalia and Eritrea, intensifying military and economic support to counterbalance Ethiopia's influence. This could potentially include engaging Djibouti, which is significantly affected by Ethiopian trade dynamics. Alternatively, Egypt might consider strengthening its relationship with Turkey, leveraging Ankara's connections with Ethiopia to mediate the ongoing Renaissance Dam crisis. Turkey's involvement could provide Egypt with a pathway to resolve its water-sharing disputes, drawing on Ankara's experience in similar regional issues.
As the situation develops, the balance of power in the Horn of Africa remains precarious, with Egypt striving to maintain its influence while navigating complex regional relationships.
