Russian Failures in Ukraine: Growing Discontent Among Military Bloggers
The Ukraine war has wreaked havoc on both sides, but recent focus has shifted toward significant losses endured by Russian forces. Russian military bloggers, often regarded as staunch supporters of the Kremlin, have increasingly voiced their frustrations over what they describe as avoidable tactical mistakes by Vladimir Putin's commanders. This discontent surfaced particularly with the destruction of a Russian supply convoy near the border town of Sudja, highlighting the critical vulnerabilities that Ukrainian forces exploit.
Open-source intelligence platform Oryx has meticulously documented the material losses suffered by Russia from February 2022 to June 2024. According to their statistics, Russia has lost over 16,129 military vehicles, with more than 11,575 of them destroyed or severely damaged, and nearly 3,000 captured by Ukrainian forces. In addition, the figures for lost battle tanks are staggering, with 3,079 tanks counted lost, of which 2,067 were destroyed or damaged and another 856 either captured or missing.
Escalating Cross-Border Strikes with NATO Weapons
Ukraine's ability to carry out cross-border strikes has taken a new turn with recent approvals from NATO allies, including the United States. These approvals allow Kyiv to target Russian military infrastructure near the border using sophisticated Western weaponry. Recently, a Ukrainian attack using the Himars multiple rocket launcher system struck a Russian S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft defense system in the Belgorod region. This attack, confirmed by Ukrainian media and several military bloggers, marks a significant escalation, leveraging longer-range Western weapons to hit strategic military targets within Russia.
These cross-border strikes have not only inflicted tangible losses but have also exposed the flawed logistics and tactical planning within the Russian military. When Ukrainian forces, including the 53rd and 103rd brigades, launched an attack on a Russian convoy near Sudja using kamikaze drones, pro-Kremlin military bloggers were quick to critique the Russian army for continuing to employ long, vulnerable convoys. The attack resulted in heavy damage and the loss of up to twelve vehicles, further fueling criticism from Russian propagandists and bloggers about the need for revised military logistics and tactics.
Domestic Unrest: Families of Soldiers Demand Accountability
The internal unrest within Russia is not confined to online criticism. The members of the Way Home movement, composed mainly of the wives of mobilized soldiers, are vocally demanding that their spouses return home. The Russian Ministry of Justice's recent decision to blacklist the group as 'foreign agents' has done little to quell their calls for accountability. These women accuse the Kremlin of spreading misinformation about the war and have organized several protests demanding the return of their loved ones, even under the threat of government reprisal.
The voices of these women echo the broader dissatisfaction within Russia. Despite the Kremlin's efforts to label dissenting groups as foreign agents, the growing criticism elements its way into the public sphere, revealing the strategic and human costs of Putin's prolonged military campaign in Ukraine. Their plight underscores the severity of the conflict and the domestic consequences of Russia's war strategies.
- The conflict's intensity has pushed many Russian citizens, including those indirectly affected by the war, to question the Kremlin's persistence. President Vladimir Putin's forced mobilization decree in September 2022 resulted in the recruitment of 300,000 soldiers, with the true figure believed to be higher due to the enlistment of volunteers attracted by significant financial incentives.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to stress the necessity for Western countries to provide more advanced weaponry with greater range to target Russian air bases, emphasizing that current aid, while substantial, remains insufficient. This sentiment is widely supported within Ukraine as they seek to counter the continuous shelling from Russian forces, particularly in the Kharkiv region.
- Observations from both Ukrainian and Russian bloggers suggest that the war's trajectory might shift as Ukraine gains more advanced military resources. However, international restrictions remain, limiting the usage of long-range missiles like Atacms, which could potentially alter the balance of power along the front lines.
