Major Political Shifts Expected in the 2024 European Elections
The 2024 European elections are poised to bring significant political changes across the continent. With more than 360 million European citizens called to vote between June 6 and 9, the elections will determine the composition of the European Parliament for the next five years. These elections are particularly crucial in light of current geopolitical challenges, such as Russia's war against Ukraine, and the internal rise of Eurosceptic political formations.
The European electoral process is uniquely complex. While the majority of countries, including Spain and Latvia, vote on a single day—June 9—other countries like Italy and the Czech Republic hold their elections over multiple days. As the only multinational parliamentary assembly elected by direct suffrage, the European Parliament wields considerable influence, including approving the EU budget and monitoring spending.
In the UK, The Times predicts a 'radical change' in the political landscape, influenced by strong populist factions. The central figures in this dynamic are Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Meloni could play a key role in shaping the next alliance either with the European Conservatives and Reformers or with Le Pen's Identity and Democracy group.
Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera underscores the emotional appeal needed to sway voters, criticizing the European elite's focus on intellectual discourse rather than issues that resonate with the electorate's 'heart' and 'blood.' This sentiment points to a broader European dissatisfaction with political entities that fail to address nationalist concerns.
Hungarian daily Magyar Nemzet offers a perspective aligned with the right-wing populist government, viewing the elections as a 'turning point.' This highlights the ongoing tension between traditional values and the vision of a centralized 'United States of Europe.' Hungary's ruling Fidesz party aims to send representatives who will reinforce national and cultural ties within the EU.
Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, early forecasts show Geert Wilders' radical right-wing party PVV nearly tying with the red-green electoral alliance. Despite lower overall turnout, the country projects a strong pro-EU sentiment, with almost two-thirds of Dutch seats likely going to pro-European parties. This counters the notion that the Netherlands is withdrawing from its commitments to the EU.
- The 2024 European elections are the tenth iteration since the first held in 1979. Each country's number of Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) is based on its population, with Germany electing the most at 96 MEPs. Malta and other smaller nations elect fewer representatives, ensuring proportionate representation across the union.
- Unique to these elections, the voting age has been lowered in several countries. In Germany, Austria, Belgium, and Malta, 16-year-olds can now vote, while Greece allows 17-year-olds. This reflects efforts to engage younger generations in the political process.
- The primary candidates for the European Commission are also under scrutiny. German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen, Luxembourgish socialist Nicolas Schmit, and Austrian leftist Walter Baier are some of the notable figures, though they are not running for MEP positions. Instead, they are slated to preside over the next College of Commissioners.
- Polls anticipate the European People's Party (EPP) will maintain its lead with a possible slight increase in seats. The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) are expected to see a minor decrease, while far-right groups may consolidate to challenge their standing. Declines are forecasted for liberal and green factions, whereas leftist groups like La Izquierda might experience slight gains.
