The National Rally (RN) has shown significant strength in the first round of legislative elections in France, achieving remarkable results in various constituencies. The RN, led by Marine Le Pen, has positioned itself as a dominant force, particularly in the Pyrénées-Orientales and several overseas territories, including Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Guyana.
In the Pyrénées-Orientales, the RN saw a substantial increase in voter turnout, with participation rising by over 20% compared to 2022. Louis Aliot, the RN mayor of Perpignan, expressed confidence in their electoral strategy, highlighting the movement's robust showing in three out of four constituencies. Anaïs Sabatini secured a decisive victory in the second constituency with 54.28% of the votes.
The first round results also revealed a strong performance by the RN in Martinique, where Grégory Roy-Larentry, a liberal nurse, managed to secure 9.88% of the votes in the fourth constituency, marking a historic breakthrough for the party on the island. In Guadeloupe, RN candidates Laurent Petit and Rody Tolassy qualified for the second round in the 2nd and 3rd constituencies, respectively.
In Guyana, the New Popular Front (NFP) candidates, Jean-Victor Castor and Davy Rimane, led the first round with substantial margins but did not secure the necessary 25% of registered voters to win outright. The RN's progress was also notable in New Caledonia, where Nicolas Metzdorf, a loyalist candidate, led the first round with 39.81% of the votes.
President Emmanuel Macron's party, Ensemble, faced significant challenges, with many candidates failing to advance to the second round. Macron has called for a 'broad, clearly democratic and republican union' against the RN in the upcoming second round on July 7. The New Popular Front coalition, which includes La France Insoumise and other left-wing parties, also performed well, securing second place in the overall vote count.
The high voter turnout, close to 70%, has led to numerous triangular contests in the second round, which could benefit the RN. The political landscape in France is undergoing a significant transformation, with the RN poised to become a major parliamentary force. The outcome of the second round will be crucial in determining the future political direction of the country.
- In the first constituency of the Pyrénées-Orientales, the RN's Sophie Blanc is in a strong position with 45.24% of the votes, while in the third constituency, Sandrine Dogor-Such leads with 45.57%. The fourth constituency sees Michèle Martinez on the verge of victory with 47.90%. These results indicate a potential for the RN to secure multiple seats in the upcoming second round.
- In Martinique, the RN's breakthrough is significant as the party had never previously crossed the 5% threshold. In Guadeloupe, the RN's performance marks a substantial improvement from previous elections, with candidates qualifying for the second round in two constituencies.
- The New Popular Front's strong showing in Guyana highlights the coalition's ability to mobilize voters in overseas territories. The high participation rates in these regions reflect a growing political engagement among the electorate.
- The potential scenarios for the second round include the possibility of cohabitation between President Macron and a prime minister from the RN, should the party secure an absolute majority. This would create an unprecedented political situation in France, requiring careful navigation of executive powers.
- The RN's 'dediabolization' strategy, spearheaded by Marine Le Pen, has played a crucial role in the party's electoral success. The shift in public perception and the party's ability to present a more mainstream image have contributed to its growing support base.
- The upcoming second round on July 7 will be a critical test for all political parties, as they seek to consolidate their positions and form alliances to counter the RN's advance. The results will have far-reaching implications for the future governance of France.
