In the lead-up to the legislative elections in France, the National Rally (RN) party, led by Jordan Bardella, is gaining significant traction. Recent opinion polls indicate that RN and its allies are expected to secure 35.5% of the votes in the first round of the elections, scheduled for June 30 and July 7. This positions them ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, which is projected to receive 29.5% of the votes, and the centrist coalition of President Emmanuel Macron, which is expected to garner 19.5% of the votes.
The Ipsos survey, conducted for Le Parisien and Radio France, also highlighted a higher expected voter turnout of between 60% and 64%, compared to 47.5% in the last general elections in June 2022. Despite the lead in the polls, it remains uncertain whether RN will secure an absolute majority.
Marine Le Pen, a prominent figure in RN, can be optimistic as some polls predict her party might achieve an absolute majority. A survey by the Odoxa institute for Le Nouvel Obs suggests that RN could win between 250 and 300 seats in the National Assembly, surpassing the absolute majority threshold of 289 seats.
Jordan Bardella, in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche, emphasized his desire to unite the French people and serve as a prime minister for all, regardless of whether they voted for him. He criticized Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left 'Proud France' party, warning of the dangers posed by the extreme left.
President Emmanuel Macron, who has faced challenges since losing the majority in the National Assembly in June 2022, called for early legislative elections following a defeat in the European Parliament elections earlier this month. Macron's centrist coalition's performance is crucial, as another Ipsos survey revealed that only 20% of participants trust his coalition to manage economic issues, compared to 25% for the National Rally.
Macron's strategy may hinge on the second round of voting, where he hopes to prevent RN's dominance by rallying democratic forces against RN candidates. This approach aims to maintain a 'firewall' against the far-right in the run-off elections on July 7.
- The political landscape in France is witnessing a significant shift as the National Rally gains momentum. The party's promise to address economic and public fund management issues resonates with a portion of the electorate, as indicated by the Ipsos survey.
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon, on the other hand, remains a polarizing figure, with his refusal to either remove or impose himself as prime minister if the left wins, adding to the political tension. His criticism of Bardella and Macron highlights the deep ideological divides within the French political spectrum.
- Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for early elections is seen as a high-stakes gamble. His coalition's ability to recover from the recent European Parliament election defeat and secure a significant number of seats in the legislative elections will be critical for his administration's future.
- The outcome of these elections will not only determine the balance of power in the National Assembly but also influence France's political direction in the coming years. The high voter turnout expected suggests that the French electorate is highly engaged and aware of the stakes involved.
