The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Mali is a direct result of both the military's governance and the security situation, which has left millions vulnerable.
The political landscape in Mali is increasingly polarized, with the military's actions prompting significant opposition from former allies and civil society groups.
The potential for civil unrest is high, as historical precedents suggest that the population may mobilize against military rule if their demands for democratic governance are not met.
If the military council continues to resist calls for democratic elections, widespread protests may erupt, potentially leading to a new cycle of violence and instability in Mali.
The formation of an interim civilian government in exile could galvanize opposition forces within Mali, leading to increased pressure on the military council to relinquish power.
Continued humanitarian crises may force international intervention or increased pressure from regional organizations like ECOWAS, which have previously imposed sanctions on Mali.
Mali is currently facing a severe humanitarian crisis, with over 9 million people in need of urgent assistance. The situation has worsened due to ongoing security clashes, particularly in the northern regions of the country, exacerbating the plight of civilians, including over 161,000 children suffering from famine and malnutrition.
On November 21, General Assimi Goita dismissed civilian Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maiga and appointed Major General Abdoulaye Maiga in his place. This move is seen as part of a broader strategy by the military to consolidate power amidst increasing internal and external pressures for a return to democratic governance.
The military council, which took control in 2021, had initially promised to hold elections in March 2024 but has since postponed them indefinitely, citing security concerns. This decision has led to significant unrest among political parties and civil society, with calls for a return to civilian rule gaining momentum.
Political analysts suggest that the recent changes in leadership and the military's refusal to engage with civilian political forces may lead to increased confrontations and protests, reminiscent of the civil unrest that preceded the military coup in 2020.
