Daily Reports
Sunday evening, TF1 topped the ratings with a special program devoted to the legislative elections, attracting 5.6 million viewers, or a 22.4% audience share. France 2 also disrupted its programs for election coverage, drawing 5.2 million viewers, or 21.1% of the audience share. M6 followed with the Euro 2024 football match between Spain and Georgia, which attracted 3.6 million football fans, or 16.5% of the public.
The far-right National Regrouping (RN) party emerged as the winner of the first round of the legislative elections in France, securing 34.2% of the vote according to estimates by the Ifop institute for TF1. This marks the first time the extreme right has won legislative elections in France. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition came in second with 29.1%, while President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble (Together) party was third with 21.5%.
President Emmanuel Macron has called for a 'broad, clearly democratic and republican union' against Le Pen's party in the second round, scheduled for July 7. Participation in the first round was close to 70%, the highest since 1981, indicating a significant public interest in these elections.
The high voter turnout suggests the possibility of numerous triangular constituencies, where three candidates will compete in the second round. This could complicate the election landscape, potentially facilitating the election of RN candidates, who are currently in the lead. If lesser-voted candidates withdraw to concentrate the vote against the extreme right, Le Pen's candidates might face challenges in achieving an absolute majority.
Various scenarios could unfold depending on the results of the second round. If the RN wins an absolute majority, Macron would have to cohabit with a far-right prime minister, likely Jordan Bardella. If the NFP wins, they would need to resolve internal disputes over their prime minister candidate. A relative majority for any party would lead to a precarious government, continually threatened by potential motions of censure.
The legislative elections have been marked by a violent campaign, with candidates and activists from various parties facing attacks. The French government has increased police presence to prevent altercations during the vote count. High participation rates and the strategic withdrawal of candidates could be crucial in determining the final outcome.
- The legislative elections in France are being closely watched as they could lead to the extreme right gaining power for the first time through democratic means. The first round saw high voter turnout, with participation rates reaching 59.39% by 5:00 p.m., nearly 20 points higher than in 2022.
- The New Popular Front (NFP) has united various left-wing parties to present a common front against the National Regrouping (RN). Despite internal tensions and accusations of radicalism, their primary goal is to prevent the extreme right from achieving an absolute majority.
- The voting system in France, which requires a majority absolute in the first round or a runoff in the second round, adds complexity to the election outcomes. High participation and the presence of multiple candidates in the second round could lead to unexpected results.
- The RN's potential victory has sparked concerns among business leaders and political analysts. Some fear that a win for either the extreme right or the left-wing coalition could lead to economic instability and policy shifts that might impact the country's fiscal health.
- President Emmanuel Macron's call for unity among democrats aims to consolidate votes against the RN. However, the fractured political landscape and the rise of both the extreme right and left-wing coalitions suggest a challenging path ahead for any governing party.
