The election decision in France is approaching, and Emmanuel Macron is facing significant challenges. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) has won the first round of the new election, relegating Macron's loyalists to second place. This outcome has raised concerns in Europe, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and France's political stability. Two key questions arise: How will Le Pen's loyalists handle relations with Russia, and how will Macron react to a potential loss of his majority in the National Assembly?
Marine Le Pen's ties to Vladimir Putin have been a point of contention. In 2017, she was seen with Putin in the Kremlin, and her party received a nine-million-euro loan from a Russian bank in 2014. Although Le Pen has tried to distance herself from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, doubts remain about the true extent of her party's connections to Moscow. Le Pen's resistance to halting arms deliveries to Russia in 2015 and her use of pro-Russian language in official statements have fueled skepticism.
Macron, a strong supporter of Ukraine in the EU, faces a precarious situation. If he loses support in parliament, his ability to govern effectively will be severely limited. This scenario, known as 'cohabitation,' could lead to political failures and discord. Macron's nomination of Thierry Breton for the EU Commission has already sparked controversy, with the RN threatening to reverse this decision. The potential for confrontation between Macron and the RN could lead to unprecedented turmoil in France.
On the eve of the legislative elections, Moscow has made its preference clear. Andrei Nastasín, head of communications for the Russian Foreign Ministry, expressed support for Le Pen, highlighting a desire for a sovereign French foreign policy. Le Pen, however, has attempted to downplay this endorsement, suggesting that it may be a form of interference intended to harm her campaign. Despite her efforts to distance herself from Russia, Le Pen's past admiration for Putin and her party's ideological affinities with the Kremlin remain points of concern.
The Kremlin's unusual public endorsement of Le Pen underscores the complex relationship between European nationalist movements and Russia. Putin has previously blamed Washington for the rise of the extreme right in Europe, arguing that European nationalist movements are a response to decisions made by the United States. This narrative aligns with Le Pen's stance on national identity and sovereignty, as well as her skepticism towards the EU and NATO.
