Macron's Camp Faces Significant Losses in National Assembly
The recent dissolution of the National Assembly has led to a substantial reduction in the number of deputies for Emmanuel Macron's camp. According to Ifop estimates for Le Figaro, the presidential Renaissance party and its allies, MoDem and Horizons, will have between 161 to 169 deputies. This represents a drop of at least 80 parliamentarians compared to the previous legislature. The first-round results showed Ensemble! barely scraping past 20% of the votes, one of the lowest scores for a head of state under the Fifth Republic during a legislative election. Despite the 'Republican front' aimed at blocking the National Rally, Ensemble! managed to limit the damage.
In detail, Renaissance is expected to have between 98 and 100 elected officials, MoDem between 29 and 33, and Horizons between 22 and 23. Additionally, 12 to 13 other officials close to the former presidential majority will enter the Hemicycle. The allies of the President achieved their best scores in the west of France, particularly in Mayenne, Ille-et-Vilaine, Maine-et-Loire, and Yvelines. According to partial results from the Ministry of the Interior, 139 Macronist candidates are already certain to enter the Palais Bourbon, including Elisabeth Borne and Jean-René Cazeneuve.
The Republican Right's Struggles Continue
The Republican right has faced a historic low in representation in the lower house of Parliament. With a meager 6.57% in the first round, The Republicans (LR) secured 57 to 67 seats according to Ipsos estimates. This places them far behind the New Popular Front, the presidential bloc Ensemble, and the National Rally. Despite a better-than-expected result, the party's performance marks a significant decline from its past dominance. Only Philippe Juvin was re-elected in the first round, highlighting the party's struggles.
The Republicans faced a major disadvantage due to their inability to field candidates in all constituencies, partly because of an alliance with the National Rally. In the second round, the party was present in only 53 constituencies, with 251 candidates eliminated in the first round. The party's decline has been ongoing since 2007, when it had a large majority with 313 seats out of 577. By 2022, the number had dwindled to 64 seats, making them the fourth political force in the country.
Far-Right Party Falls Short of Majority
The far-right National Rally (RN) placed third in the legislative elections, securing between 132 to 152 seats. This result is behind the New Popular Front and the presidential camp, Ensemble. Although the RN had hoped to become the leading force, it fell short of an absolute majority. The RN's performance still marks a significant rise from its previous standing, confirming its growing influence. In the first round, the RN managed to elect 39 deputies, including Marine Le Pen and Party spokesperson Philippe Balard.
Marine Le Pen had stated that the RN would only agree to join the government if it secured an absolute majority to avoid betraying its voters. However, the party's dream of a majority and placing Jordan Bardella in Matignon was dashed. The RN's performance, while disappointing in terms of majority, sets the stage for future ambitions, particularly with an eye on the 2027 presidential election.
- The dissolution of the National Assembly has significantly impacted Macron's camp, reducing their number of deputies by at least 80.
- The Republican right has seen a historic low in representation, securing only 57 to 67 seats, a far cry from their past dominance.
- The far-right National Rally secured between 132 to 152 seats, falling short of an absolute majority but confirming their rising influence.
