Daily Reports
The Battle for Legislative Dominance in France
The horizon of an absolute majority seems to be receding for the National Rally (RN), as the first round of the legislative elections resulted in more than 300 triangular elections out of 577 constituencies. The left and the macronie have intensified reciprocal withdrawals to prevent the national camp from gaining a free hand in the second round. RN President Jordan Bardella criticized the alliance between Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Emmanuel Macron, calling it an “alliance of dishonor.” He expressed surprise at Macron’s support for a movement that he claims promotes disorder and anti-Semitism, and at Mélenchon’s call for his candidates to withdraw in favor of Macron’s.
Macron’s Stand Against the Far-Right
Amidst the struggle, Emmanuel Macron instructed his ministers that “not a single vote” should go to the extreme right in the second round of the legislative elections. He reminded them of the left’s mobilization against the RN in 2017 and 2022, which facilitated his own ascent to the Élysée. Although Macron did not give explicit instructions to withdraw from the ballots, the emotional response was evident among ministers, with some withdrawing to block the RN. Macron reiterated his commitment to guiding the country and warned against disunity, emphasizing the importance of depriving the RN of an absolute majority.
The Far-Right Surge and Election Projections
The far-right voting wave is confirmed, with the bloc of RN and LR candidates leading the first round with 34% of the votes. The New Popular Front followed with 28.1%, while the majority list trailed with 20.3%. The RN and its allies could potentially secure 230 to 280 seats in the second round. The goal for the RN and LR bloc is to achieve an absolute majority of 289 deputies. However, Bardella has stated that he will refuse to be appointed Prime Minister if the far-right alliance does not succeed, emphasizing that a Prime Minister with a relative majority would be ineffective.
- The political landscape in France is witnessing intense maneuvering as parties strategize to prevent the National Rally from gaining an absolute majority. The reciprocal withdrawals by the left and the macronie highlight the high stakes involved in the second round of the legislative elections.
- Emmanuel Macron’s directive to his ministers underscores the critical nature of this election. By reminding them of past mobilizations against the far-right, Macron aims to galvanize his team to prevent the RN from gaining significant power. The emotional reactions from ministers reflect the gravity of the situation and the lengths to which they are willing to go to block the RN.
- The far-right’s significant lead in the first round has set the stage for a contentious second round. The RN and LR bloc’s potential to secure a substantial number of seats indicates a shifting political climate. However, Jordan Bardella’s refusal to accept the position of Prime Minister under a relative majority reveals the internal challenges and strategic considerations within the far-right camp.
