High Voter Turnout Marks French Election Runoff
The 2024 French election has reached its climax with the second round of the early parliamentary elections taking place today. As of midday, voter turnout was reported at 26.63 percent, the highest since 1981, according to the Interior Ministry in Paris. This high engagement underscores the significance of this election, which could lead to radical political shifts both nationally and internationally.
Potential Political Shifts and Coalition Formations
Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) party is vying for an absolute majority, which could result in significant policy changes. However, recent polls suggest that achieving this majority is unlikely. Many third-place candidates from left-wing parties and Macron's centrist alliance have withdrawn to support moderate candidates against the RN. This strategy may prevent an absolute majority for the RN but leaves open the possibility of coalition formations with the conservative Republicans.
The first results and projections are expected around 8 p.m., with final results anticipated later in the evening. The outcome could lead to the formation of three blocs in the National Assembly, potentially paralyzing the government and plunging the country into a political crisis. President Emmanuel Macron has acknowledged the high stakes, stating that 'nothing has been decided yet.'
The dissolution of the National Assembly by Macron, following his party's poor performance in the 2024 European elections, set the stage for these early parliamentary elections. The results will determine the composition of the 577-seat National Assembly, where deputies propose and vote on laws and decide on the main political orientations of the country.
The influence of the 2024 French elections extends beyond national borders, impacting EU policy and support for Ukraine in the war with Russia. If Le Pen's party wins, she aims to prevent the use of French weapons on Russian territory, a stance that could alter international relations significantly.
- The polling stations in France opened at 8 a.m., and voters have until 8 p.m. to cast their votes. The first forecasts and projections will be published shortly after the polls close, providing initial indications before the final results are announced.
- In cities like Paris, Bordeaux, and Marseille, polling stations may remain open until 8 p.m., leading to later final results in these areas. The counting of votes is usually done quickly in France, so the winners of the current parliamentary elections are expected to be announced this evening.
- The latest polls suggest that Le Pen's RN might receive between 175 to 205 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority. The left-wing alliance is projected to secure 145 to 175 seats, while Macron's camp is expected to get 118 to 148 seats.
- The election results will also determine the possibility of cohabitation, where the government and the president come from different political camps. This scenario could lead to significant changes in French domestic and foreign policy.
