Hezbollah's Escalation in Military Operations: Implications for Israeli Deterrence
Military analysts have observed a significant escalation in Hezbollah's rocket launches towards Israel, particularly targeting the city of Haifa. This increase in military activity suggests that Hezbollah has restored its missile and combat capabilities, which could shift the existing deterrence equations in the region.
Colonel Hatem Al-Falahi, a military and strategic expert, anticipates that the coming days will see a marked rise in attacks on various strategic targets within Israel. He noted that targeting Haifa, an important economic and military hub, could severely impact the Israeli economy and deepen the internal political rifts between the government and opposition.
Brigadier General Hassan Jouni echoed Al-Falahi's assessment, stating that the concentrated targeting of Haifa is part of Hezbollah's strategy to enhance its deterrence capabilities. He outlined a three-stage development of these deterrence equations, starting from limited clashes in southern Lebanon, escalating to attacks on northern Israel, and culminating in the current focus on Haifa.
The analysts highlighted that this escalation could alter the dynamics of Israeli military operations, potentially limiting the Israeli army's actions in southern Beirut. However, Al-Falahi cautioned that there remains a significant imbalance in military power, with Israel's technological and military capabilities vastly surpassing those of Hezbollah.
Despite the effectiveness of Hezbollah's missiles in reaching their targets, their strategic impact is limited unless they accurately hit vital infrastructure. Brigadier General Jouni pointed out that in unconventional warfare, Hezbollah's goal may not be to match Israel's military might but to disrupt life in significant urban centers like Haifa, which could pressure Israeli society and its government.
Recent reports indicate casualties in Kiryat Shmona, underscoring the moral impact of such incidents on the Israeli public. Both analysts concluded that the ongoing operations could lead to a precarious balance of power, compelling Israel to reassess its security strategies in response to these developments.
