The shift in HTS's discourse reflects a broader strategy to gain legitimacy and control in a fragmented Syrian landscape, where traditional power dynamics are continually evolving.
HTS's ability to navigate local and international politics is crucial for its survival and influence in the region, especially as external powers reassess their roles in Syria.
The establishment of a civilian administration under HTS indicates a pragmatic approach to governance, which may help mitigate humanitarian crises and attract international support.
HTS may continue to evolve its political and military strategies to further integrate into the local governance structure, potentially leading to a more stable region if successful.
International perceptions of HTS could shift if the organization successfully implements governance reforms and demonstrates a commitment to protecting civil rights and freedoms.
The ongoing geopolitical dynamics, particularly involving Russia, Turkey, and the U.S., will significantly impact HTS's future operations and its relationship with other factions in Syria.
Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has recently shifted its political discourse, moving from a jihadist narrative to a more nationalistic approach, which has played a significant role in its recent military successes in Syria, particularly during the 'Deterrence of Aggression' battle. This transformation has allowed HTS to gain local legitimacy and control over key regions, including Aleppo and Idlib, amidst ongoing conflicts with the Syrian army.
The organization has established a civilian governance model through the Salvation Government, which aims to manage areas outside of Syrian government control effectively. This governance model has been bolstered by strategic projects aimed at improving local infrastructure and community welfare, thereby enhancing HTS's legitimacy among the local population.
HTS's recent military operations have been characterized by a disciplined media strategy that emphasizes the protection of civilians and the need to maintain stability in the region. This approach includes outreach to minority communities and a call for international actors, such as Russia and Iraq, to reconsider their support for the Assad regime.
Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of HTS, has indicated a willingness to transition the organization towards a more integrated civil and military structure, potentially dissolving HTS to form new institutions that reflect Syria's diverse society. This move aims to address local and international concerns regarding HTS's influence and its implications for personal and religious freedoms.
