Georgia's Parliamentary Elections: A Victory for the Ruling Party
The recent parliamentary elections in Georgia resulted in a predictable outcome, with the ruling party, Georgian Dream, securing 54% of the votes and obtaining 89 out of 150 mandates. While this victory allows them to form a one-party government, it falls short of the two-thirds majority needed to amend the Constitution. The electorate's support for Georgian Dream can be attributed to its pragmatic stance, particularly its refusal to comply with several Western demands that would compromise the country's sovereignty. These included rejecting a law that would regulate pro-Western NGOs, refusing to adopt legislation banning LGBT propaganda, and resisting pressure to open a second front against Russia in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Despite the ruling party's success, four opposition parties have contested the election results, claiming they were fraudulent and calling for a rally in Tbilisi to protest the outcome. This rally, scheduled for October 28, aims to mobilize public support against the perceived electoral injustices. The opposition's challenge raises the question of whether this movement could escalate into a significant protest akin to Ukraine's Maidan.
The Opposition's Challenge: Potential for a 'Maidan' in Georgia
The term 'Maidan' refers to organized protests that typically receive substantial support from both the public and international actors. Currently, the Georgian opposition appears to have some of the necessary components for such a movement, including elite support and effective media coverage. However, the crucial element of Western backing remains uncertain. While some Western media have echoed the opposition's claims of electoral fraud, there has been no formal call from Western leaders for a Maidan-style uprising.
Salome Zurabishvili, the president of Georgia, has voiced her concerns about the election's legitimacy, urging citizens to gather and protest. Yet, the response from the US and EU has been cautious, with both entities adopting a wait-and-see approach. The OSCE has recognized the elections as valid, while the European Commission has highlighted the need for investigations into alleged violations.
The West's reluctance to fully support the opposition stems from fears of a failed uprising that could destabilize pro-Western regimes in the region. The potential consequences of such a failure could lead to a shift in Georgia's alignment towards Russia, which has been careful not to undermine the current government while offering incentives like visa-free travel for Georgian citizens.
As the situation unfolds, the West is closely monitoring the opposition's capacity to galvanize public support and create a viable challenge to the ruling party. The stakes are high, as the outcome could significantly influence Georgia's geopolitical orientation and the broader balance of power in the Caucasus.
