Daily Reports
High Turnout in French Legislative Elections
The first round of the French legislative elections began today, following President Emmanuel Macron's decision to dissolve Parliament on June 9. This move came after Macron's ruling coalition suffered a significant loss to the far-right National Rally in the European Parliament elections earlier this month.
The National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella and historically by Marine Le Pen, secured 31.4% of the votes in the European elections, compared to 14.6% for Macron’s camp. This unexpected outcome accelerated political events, leading to the early legislative elections. According to Agence France-Presse, the results of these elections could potentially bring the far-right to power for the first time since World War II.
Contrasting Opinions and Political Stakes
Macron’s decision to dissolve Parliament was unexpected, as he was not constitutionally required to take this step despite losing the European majority. Macron described the decision as 'heavy and dangerous,' emphasizing that it was a step of confidence towards the French people to prevent Marine Le Pen from obtaining a parliamentary majority.
French media had varied reactions to Macron's decision. The 'Media Part' website suggested that Macron was positioning himself as the only solution to counter the far-right, a strategy it deemed overused. Meanwhile, 'Le Monde' newspaper highlighted the urgency of the situation with the headline '3 weeks to avoid disaster,' reflecting the fear of the extreme right rising to power.
The Right's Confidence and Election Dynamics
Marine Le Pen expressed confidence in winning an absolute majority, predicting that Bardella would become prime minister. The National Rally has prioritized reducing immigration as a key issue, with Bardella stating in a televised debate that he would reimpose the rule of law and address immigration as the main issue affecting national identity.
Opinion polls suggest that the National Rally will lead among competing parties, followed by the left-wing bloc and Macron’s centrist coalition. If the National Rally wins, French diplomacy may face unprecedented challenges due to potential conflicts between the presidency and parliament. Macron has stated he will continue his presidency until 2027, while Bardella has indicated he will challenge Macron on global issues.
The participation rate in the elections is expected to be high, potentially reaching about 67% of the 49 million registered voters, a significant increase from the 47.5% recorded in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections.
- The first round of the legislative elections, called in advance by President Emmanuel Macron, began to take place this Sunday in the voting centers, within the framework of elections that could mean the arrival to power for the first time of the extreme right by the democratic way.
- More than 49.5 million citizens are called to the polls to elect the 577 deputies of the National Assembly. The second round will take place next Sunday, July 7.
- The far-right National Rally (RN) leads polls with a voting intention of 36%, even more than the 31.4% obtained in the European elections on June 9, in which its victory prompted President Emmanuel Macron to call these elections.
- The New Popular Front (NFP), which brings together the left, has an average of 28.2% in voting intention polls, while the Macronist bloc is further away, with an average of 20.3%, with a sharp drop regarding the elections two years ago.
- The polls even point to the possibility of the RN obtaining an absolute majority in the second round, whose threshold is 289 deputies. In the 2022 elections, the RN obtained 88 deputies, in what was its best historical result.
- The president of the RN and candidate for prime minister, Jordan Bardella, only 28 years old, has insistently asked the French to give him an absolute majority in order to have a free hand to be able to apply his electoral program without hindrance.
- Voters will elect 539 deputies from metropolitan France, 27 from overseas territories in the Pacific, Indian Ocean and Caribbean, as well as 11 representing French people living abroad.
- The result of the first round will offer a general picture of voter opinion, but not necessarily of the general composition of the National Assembly. It is extremely difficult to make predictions because of the complicated voting system and because parties will work between rounds to form alliances in some constituencies or leave others.
- In the past, such strategies have helped keep far-right candidates out of power. But now support for Le Pen's party has spread widely.
