The French legislative elections have seen a remarkable surge in voter participation, with 67% of registered voters casting their ballots in the second round, according to Ipsos estimates. This represents a significant increase from previous years, where participation was notably lower. In the second round of the 2022 legislative elections, only 46.23% of registered voters turned out, and it was even less in 2017, with 42.6% of voters.
This year’s high turnout is attributed to effective mobilization efforts by various political camps, including a notable increase in young voter participation. Political scientist Olivier Rouquan highlighted that each camp was able to mobilize its electorate, contributing to the record participation rate.
The elections have been marked by a tense atmosphere, with fears of violence and unrest. The government has deployed 30,000 police officers nationwide, with 5,000 stationed in the French capital, Paris, to prevent potential riots and looting. Businesses and banks in major cities like Paris, Lyon, and Grenoble have been boarded up as a precaution.
The far-right National Regrouping (RG), led by Marine Le Pen, is projected to gain a significant number of seats in the National Assembly, though it is unlikely to secure an absolute majority. Polls indicate that RG could win between 175 and 205 seats, while the Republican Front is expected to secure between 145 and 175 seats. Without an absolute majority, the RG would not be able to force President Emmanuel Macron into a cohabitation government.
President Macron, who called for a snap election following a defeat in the European parliamentary elections, faces the possibility of governing without a clear majority. This could lead to a prolonged period of political uncertainty and potential blockades in the legislative process. Macron's centrist coalition is expected to see a significant reduction in the number of parliamentarians, potentially halving to a maximum of 148 seats.
The election results could lead to various scenarios, including the formation of a broad coalition excluding the far-right and far-left, or a technocratic government. Marine Le Pen has called on voters to avoid 'total chaos' by giving the RG a clear mandate to govern. However, the 'republican front' is likely to prevent the RG from gaining an absolute majority, thereby averting a complete shift in the political landscape.
- Polling places opened at 8 a.m. and will close in large cities at 8 p.m., with exit poll results expected shortly thereafter. At least 2.4 million people have voted by proxy, and almost half a million chose to vote online. The election coincides with the start of the summer holidays in France, prompting many to vote early.
- The election's outcome is crucial as it will determine the composition of the 577-member National Assembly and, consequently, the next prime minister. If Macron's centrist majority erodes further, he will be forced to share power with parties that oppose many of his pro-business and pro-European Union policies.
- The political landscape in France is highly polarized, with the far-right and far-left gaining traction. The National Regrouping's campaign has been marked by xenophobic rhetoric and attacks on minorities, heightening tensions. An anti-fascist demonstration was banned by the prefecture, reflecting the charged atmosphere.
- Former socialist president Francois Hollande, who came out of political retirement to run as a deputy, was re-elected and intends to be prime minister in a moderate convergence government. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen did not vote today as her district in northern France did not hold a second round, having secured her seat last week.
- The election has also sparked intense family discussions, with differing political views creating divisions. In a restaurant in Paris, a family debate highlighted the broader societal rift, with older generations supporting the far-right and younger members advocating for more moderate or leftist positions.
