The early legislative elections in France have stirred up significant political turmoil, with several high-profile ministers and deputies facing tough battles against the National Rally (RN) and the New Popular Front (NFP). Agnès Pannier-Runacher, in Pas-de-Calais, is one such minister who is struggling to close a 16-point gap against RN candidates.
Franck Riester, a long-serving delegate minister responsible for foreign trade, is also in a precarious position in Seine-et-Marne. He must recover nearly 5,000 votes to surpass his RN opponent. The withdrawal of the New Popular Front candidate may work in his favor, offering a potential boost in votes.
Former Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne and other ministers, including Frédéric Valletoux, Guillaume Kasbarian, and Hervé Berville, are similarly placed second behind RN candidates. However, they might benefit from the withdrawal of NFP candidates, which could help them secure a sufficient carryover of votes.
Sarah El Haïry and Stanislas Guerini face a more complex challenge, contending with Union of the Left candidates who pose a significant threat to their seats. El Haïry is trailing by 1,200 votes with no reserve of votes, while Guerini is 12 points behind his environmentalist opponent in Paris.
Olivier Véran, former Minister of Health, is also in danger in Isère. He is counting on the votes from the eliminated LR candidate to combat the NFP candidate, Hugo Prevost. Véran emphasizes the need to mobilize against the NFP to avoid a left-wing victory.
Meanwhile, the left, represented by the Liot group and other deputies like Caroline Fiat and François Ruffin, is mobilizing to counter the RN wave. Ruffin, in particular, is distancing himself from Jean-Luc Mélenchon to appeal to voters who supported the presidential majority.
On the right, sovereignist candidates like Emmanuelle Ménard and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan are also under threat. Ménard is trailing by 14 points due to her distancing from Marine Le Pen's party, while Dupont-Aignan faces a challenging triangular election in Essonne.
The first round of these early legislative elections has led to a significant number of duels, triangulars, and even quadrangulars. The withdrawals from the left and the majority aim to form a 'republican front' against the RN, reducing the number of triangulars from 306 to 89 and increasing duels to 409.
Of the 577 constituencies in France, 501 did not see a candidate elected in the first round. The elections have highlighted the demographic disparities across constituencies, ranging from the densely populated fifth district of Loire-Atlantique to the sparsely populated overseas territories like Saint-Pierre and Miquelon.
- The political landscape in France is highly volatile as the second round of early legislative elections approaches. The RN's strong performance has put many established politicians on the defensive, forcing them to strategize and form alliances to secure their seats.
- The withdrawal of candidates from the New Popular Front and other parties is a tactical move to consolidate votes against the RN. This 'republican front' aims to prevent the RN from gaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
- The demographic criteria for the 577 constituencies in France play a crucial role in these elections. Each constituency represents approximately 120,000 people, though significant disparities exist. For instance, the first district of Cantal has only 61,989 inhabitants, whereas the fifth district of Loire-Atlantique has 172,279.
