French Legislative Elections: A Pivotal Moment
As the second round of the legislative elections in France draws to a close, the political landscape is fraught with tension and uncertainty. The far-right National Regroupment (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, is poised to gain a significant number of seats, although it is unlikely to secure an absolute majority. According to the latest Ipsos-Talan survey for Radio France and France Télévisions, the RN is projected to obtain between 175 and 205 seats, falling short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.
The Role of the Republican Front
A crucial factor in this election has been the formation of the Republican Front, a coalition of left-wing and centrist parties aimed at preventing the RN from gaining power. This strategic withdrawal of over 200 candidates has concentrated votes against the RN, making it difficult for the far-right party to secure an outright victory. Polls indicate a tight race, with the left expected to secure between 145 and 175 seats and the ruling Ensemble party projected to win between 118 and 148 seats.
Rising Tensions and Xenophobic Violence
The election campaign has been marred by xenophobic violence and racist incidents, particularly targeting minority women and children. Lepenist militants have been implicated in these acts, creating an atmosphere of fear and unrest. In Paris, the anticipation of violent demonstrations has led to the mobilization of 5,000 police and gendarmes. Businesses in central Paris have boarded up their windows in preparation for potential looting and violence. The climate of tension is palpable, with sirens and unidentifiable police cars becoming a common sight in the city.
Uncertain Future and Possible Coalitions
The possibility of an ungovernable France looms large. If the RN fails to secure an absolute majority, the formation of a parliamentary majority with other parties will be essential to ensure governability. However, France lacks a strong tradition of coalition governments, unlike other European countries. The risk of ungovernability could lead to political instability, with potential calls for the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron and early presidential elections. Despite the uncertainties, the RN's significant gains in this election mark a historic moment in French politics.
- The cordon sanitaire, though battered, has played a crucial role in the campaign. The withdrawal of candidates by the French left and center has concentrated votes against the National Regroupment, making it difficult for the far-right party to secure an outright victory.
- Polls indicate a tight race, with the RN projected to gain between 175 and 240 seats, while the left and Macron's center are expected to secure between 145 and 175 and 118 and 148 seats, respectively. This unprecedented situation in the Fifth Republic highlights the complexities of the current political landscape.
- The campaign has also seen unforced errors by the RN, such as the proposal to exclude French people with dual nationality from strategic positions in the Administration. This has revived the image of xenophobia that Le Pen has tried to distance the party from since 2011.
- The Republican Front's efforts and the scrutiny of RN candidates' profiles have blocked the RN's campaign dynamics. The press and political rivals have highlighted the controversial statements and backgrounds of RN candidates, undermining Le Pen's efforts to 'demonize' the party.
- Despite these challenges, the RN's significant gains in this election mark a historic moment in French politics. Even if the RN falls short of an absolute majority, their increased presence in the National Assembly will be a political earthquake, signaling a true victory for the far-right party.
