France Faces Uncertain Political Future Amid Rising Far-Right Influence
Election Tactics and Polls Shape the Outcome
France is currently navigating one of its most critical election campaigns in modern history. The extreme right-wing party, led by Marine Le Pen, is eyeing a significant victory that could potentially allow it to form a government. The National Union Party, which secured the most votes in the first round last week, is poised to win the largest number of seats in the National Assembly. However, the party is unlikely to secure an outright majority, which is necessary for governance.
In France's electoral system, decisive races are held in about 500 districts where no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the first round. This makes it challenging to predict the final composition of the 577-seat National Assembly. To prevent the establishment of the first far-right government in France since World War II, President Emmanuel Macron's Center Bloc and the Left Alliance have joined forces. Hundreds of candidates from both blocs withdrew last week to support the candidate with the best chance of defeating far-right contenders.
Despite these efforts, the National Union is still expected to perform strongly. Polls suggest that the party will secure between 210 to 240 seats, falling short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority. Meanwhile, the new left-wing alliance, composed of Greens, Socialists, Communists, and the Left Party, is projected to win 165 to 200 seats. Macron's camp is anticipated to suffer a significant defeat, with projections showing them securing only 95 to 140 seats.
The election results are expected to lead to a hung parliament, where no single party has enough of a majority to govern. The National Union has already stated that it will not agree to form a coalition government, leaving the possibility of cooperation between other parties, excluding the National Union and the extreme left's 'Unyielding France.'
Macron's decision to hold snap elections has clouded preparations for the Olympic Games in Paris, scheduled to open on July 26. In anticipation of potential violence following the election results, 30,000 additional police officers have been deployed on the streets. Authorities have also banned a planned demonstration outside the National Assembly in Paris.
Le Pen's party, which aims to run for the presidency again in 2027, continues to advocate for policies that prioritize 'national preference' over immigrants in areas such as jobs and housing. The party also seeks to revoke the right to automatic citizenship for immigrant children and to prevent dual citizens from working in sensitive jobs.
As France awaits the final election results, the political landscape remains uncertain. The country's future governance will depend on the ability of various political factions to navigate this complex electoral terrain.
