The early voting landscape in the U.S. is evolving, with Republicans gaining ground in key battleground states, which could influence the overall election outcome.
The decline in early voting compared to the pandemic-driven surge in 2020 suggests a return to traditional voting patterns, with more voters likely to vote in person on Election Day.
The mixed data on early voting by party affiliation highlights the unpredictable nature of the upcoming election, as historical voting patterns are being challenged.
The shift in early voting trends may lead to a tighter race in battleground states than previously anticipated, potentially impacting the final election results.
If Republican mobilization continues to increase, it may counteract the Democratic advantage observed in early voting, making the election outcome more uncertain.
The final voter turnout on Election Day could be significantly influenced by the current trends in early voting, with potential implications for both parties' strategies moving forward.
CNN is tracking early voting across 36 states in the U.S., revealing significant trends as the November 5 Election Day approaches. Early voting numbers are down compared to the historic levels seen in 2020, largely due to the Covid-19 pandemic, when many voters opted for early and mail-in voting to avoid crowded polling places. Currently, 42 million Americans have already cast their ballots, representing about 27% of the total votes cast in the 2020 election, with a notable increase in Republican participation in key battleground states, contrasting with a decline in Democratic early votes in some areas.
In battleground states like North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, Republicans have mobilized effectively, showing a higher percentage of early votes compared to Democrats. This marks a shift from 2020, when Democrats had a substantial lead in early voting. For instance, in North Carolina, Republicans have cast 940,000 ballots (34.3%) compared to 910,000 for Democrats (33.2%). In Arizona, the numbers show 542,000 Republican votes (42%) against 454,000 Democrats (35%).
The overall early voting landscape indicates that while Democrats still lead in total early votes, the gap has narrowed significantly. In Pennsylvania, for instance, Democrats have received 762,000 mail-in ballots (59.4%), but this is a decrease from the overwhelming advantage seen in 2020. The new voting dynamics, including the Republican Party's shift towards encouraging early voting, have added complexity to the electoral forecast.
