The International Crisis Group has called for a united front between the Somali government and Puntland authorities to confront the evolving threat of the Islamic State (ISIS) in Somalia. The organization, which has established itself as a significant player in the global jihadist network, poses a growing risk to regional stability despite its current operational limitations.
According to the report titled “The Islamic State in Somalia: Responding to an Evolving Threat,” ISIS has been able to strengthen its presence in the northeastern Puntland region, taking advantage of the ongoing conflicts between Mogadishu and Somaliland authorities. This dynamic has allowed ISIS to enhance its logistical and financial capabilities, making it a pivotal hub for jihadist operations across Africa.
The report highlights that the origins of ISIS in Somalia date back to October 2015 when a faction broke away from the Al-Shabaab movement, aligning itself with ISIS under the leadership of Abdulqadir Mumin. Mumin's survival of a U.S. airstrike underscores his significance within the organization and raises concerns about the potential for him to emerge as a global leader for ISIS.
Factors contributing to ISIS's resilience in Somalia include its geographical advantages, tribal affiliations, and the inability of rivals like Al-Shabaab to effectively counter its influence. While Al-Shabaab remains the dominant jihadist group, ISIS's aspirations for regional control pose a significant long-term threat to Somalia and East Africa.
The report warns that if ISIS successfully exploits the failures of various Somali authorities to impose effective governance, it could lead to a more pronounced threat in the region. Therefore, the Crisis Group urges the Somali government and Puntland leaders to overcome their differences and collaborate to address the challenges posed by ISIS.
